California’s summer COVID wave has proven strong and long-lasting, unexpectedly adept with its tenacity as it enters its third month.
The strength of this summer’s COVID wave is likely largely similar to the increasingly infectious subvariants that continue to emerge as the coronavirus evolves, Dr. Kelly said. Elizabeth Hudson, Kaiser Permanente’s regional infectious disease leader in Southern California. In recent months, subvariants have emerged, jointly called FLiRT. One in particular, KP. 3. 1. 1, has grown at an unexpected rate and has become the most prevalent strain in the country.
“KP. 3. 1. 1 seems to be the ultimate expert on transmission,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco. “And that’s the one that others believe will continue to dominate, not only in the United States, but . . . all over the world. “
Coronavirus levels in California’s wastewater have surpassed the spikes seen in the past two summers, according to data estimates released Friday by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which took position during the week ending July 27. “high” or “very high” for 8 consecutive weeks.
“This specific impulse . . . It’s strong and durable, a little longer than I thought. It’s definitely very different than last summer,” Hudson said.
California is one of the states, along with the District of Columbia, experiencing “high” or “very high” levels of coronavirus in wastewater.
While hospitalizations are overall only a fraction of those seen during last summer’s COVID spikes, hospitalizations and emergency room visits have increased, and clinics are seeing greater numbers of bloated patients.
“This is a benign wave,” Dr. Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Translational Research Institute in La Jolla, wrote in a blog post published Saturday. “Now it’s a big wave. . . We haven’t reached the plateau yet. “
In Los Angeles County, there were an average of 389 hospitalized coronavirus patients during the week ending July 27, about double the number a month ago. The latter is about two-thirds of last summer’s peak and one-third of summer 2022’s peak.
“We are seeing many cases of outpatients; in fact, there’s been a much bigger increase over the last week,” Hudson said Friday.
For the week ending Saturday, the CDC estimated that KP. 3. 1. 1 accounted for 27. 8% of coronavirus samples nationwide, a striking jump from its 7. 2% share a year ago. one month old.
Since FLiRT subvariants are related, being angry at one of them will most likely offer some coverage against the others, at least for a while.
But if you move further away from contact with COVID, the increase in KP. 3. 1. 1 increases the risk of infection, as it has evolved to be even more contagious, Chin-Hong said.
In this contagious context, the number of people who have never had COVID-19 – the “Novids” – is decreasing.
“The proportion of ‘Novids’ is getting smaller and smaller,” Chin-Hong said. “I’ve heard so many stories in the last few weeks from other people who until now didn’t have any illnesses, we’re now in our fifth year” since COVID hit.
Although the new subvariants spread more easily, there is no indication that they are more likely to send someone to the hospital.
But some other people, however, have expressed amazement at how unwell they feel after their new COVID-19 illness, complaining of sore throats so intense they feel like they’re swallowing razors or broken glass, and severe coughing fits that take their breath away.
Other people may be years away from their last infection or their last dose of vaccine, making this summer’s illnesses terrible, doctors say.
“A lot of that residual coverage has gone down, and then you add a new variant that can outwit people’s remaining immunity, and we start to see this build up in cases,” Hudson said.
Some risk factors (age, underlying physical conditions, and time since the last vaccine dose) can also influence the severity of a person’s COVID illness.
It’s tricky to quantify the scale of this new wave because so many other people are testing at home or not testing at all. But cases are obviously increasing.
During the week ending July 28, there were an average of 452 new cases per day in Los Angeles County, up from 413 last week. Last summer’s peak was 571. The cases are underestimated, as they only come with tests consistent with those performed in medical facilities. .
In Los Angeles County, coronavirus degrees in wastewater reached 44% of last winter’s peak in the 10 days ending July 20. This is more than double the point observed a month earlier.
The coronavirus in Los Angeles County’s wastewater is 82% of last summer’s peak in early September.
In Santa Clara County, the most populous in the San Francisco Bay Area, coronavirus levels are highest in all sewer basins, including San Jose and Palo Alto.
The new wave of infections comes as many other people are not up to date on their COVID vaccines. According to fitness officials, anyone 6 months or older deserves to have received at least one COVID vaccine since September, but few have. Among Californians Among people over 65, 37% received at least one COVID vaccine in this period. The same is true for 18. 7% of people ages 50 to 64 and only 10. 1% of younger adults.
On top of that, many other people have abandoned COVID protective measures and no longer mind spending time in congested indoor environments or socializing with people with health problems. Many do not wear masks and do not wash their hands well.
More and more people are turning to emergency rooms for coronavirus-like illnesses. During the seven-day period ending July 28, 3. 7% of all emergency room visits in Los Angeles County were coronavirus-like. previous month. Last summer’s peak for this measure was 5. 1%.
At UC San Francisco, COVID-related hospitalizations rose this summer but have remained robust in recent weeks, Chin-Hong said. This, he said, suggests that COVID patients are not in poor enough health to stay long after admission or to require an intensive care unit stay.
The CDC and other fitness experts propose a number of methods for other people to avoid contracting COVID or any other respiratory virus, such as staying up to date on vaccinations, staying away from other people in poor physical condition, washing or sanitizing your hands frequently; and gather outdoors or do what you can to keep indoor air cleaner, such as opening windows to let in new air and filtering indoor air.
The CDC says additional methods include masking and asking other people to screen themselves before gathering for an event. These methods are especially useful when COVID is causing many ailments in a community.
Since most people have stopped wearing masks regularly, Chin-Hong said it’s not a bad idea to be on hand in case, for example, the person next to you on the plane starts coughing.
In a statement, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said that existing knowledge does not allow us to expect what awaits us during the rest of the summer.
The summer wave of 2022 lasted 16 weeks, with viral levels being “high” or “very high” in California. Last summer’s wave in California lasted 8 weeks.
At some point, however, the peak will peak; possibly it would not be obvious without delay. In a perhaps positive sign, the CDC said Friday that the status of California’s COVID outbreak was strong or uncertain, an improvement from last week’s estimate that COVID-19 was still growing.
But entering a “stable or uncertain” prestige does not necessarily mean that COVID will begin to trend downward. Scientists will want more weeks of knowledge to see if the wave has peaked or if it is just a temporary lull.
In only two states did the CDC estimate that COVID-19 is likely declining: Hawaii and Nevada. In addition to California, states thought to be on a solid or dubious COVID trajectory were Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Idaho, Maine, and Pennsylvania. COVID-19 is estimated to be developing or likely growing in 34 states, as well as the District of Columbia. Estimates were not available for seven states.
With an updated COVID vaccine likely to be available next month, doctors have recommended whether to wait or get the existing vaccine now to protect against the latest surge.
Hudson waiting. “September is a month away,” he said.
Chin-Hong warned that older or immunocompromised people, who are at the highest risk of severe COVID disease, deserve to receive existing formulas if they are not up to date.
In Northern California, Chin-Hong said, demand for the existing COVID-19 vaccine has been so high that some people are struggling to find it. But individual pharmacies still have the vaccine, she said.
People who get the existing vaccine may not have to wait as long to get the updated vaccine this fall. Last year, the U. S. Food and Drug Administration issued a report on the U. S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The U. S. Department of Homeland Security allowed people to receive the updated 2023-24 vaccine as soon as two months after their last dose.
If the same schedule applies for the 2024-25 vaccine, that would mean someone could get the existing vaccine in August, but could still get the updated vaccine in October, Chin-Hong said.
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