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The Chinese Communist Party and its leader, Xi Jinping, are not doing very well. An incredibly high youth unemployment rate, a stock market crash, and an ongoing asset crisis threaten to derail his “Chinese dream” and in all likelihood drag Xi down. And a wave of purges of senior officials over the past year — some of whom were former protégés of Xi — has fueled the hypothesis that his position in the party is not as secure as it seems.
At least that’s the narrative presented in much of the Western media discourse. The Communist Party sees things differently.
This is clear from the recently concluded annual consultation of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC). The week-long consultation, the most important annual meeting in China’s political calendar, builds an official narrative of the functionality of the year ahead and sets priorities for the year ahead. Everything presented at the congress is first approved through the ruling Communist Party after a long era of drafting and deliberation, making it one of the most transparent windows into partisan thinking.
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Judging by the NPC session, the party does not see itself as a regime in crisis. The government’s report, presented through Premier Li Qiang, paints a picture of China facing “both strategic opportunities and challenges, with favorable situations outweighing unfavorable ones. “This is not idle propaganda: the Activity Report is the highest high-level political authority for the coming year and is designed primarily for the government’s internal audience.
The report acknowledges that the year will not be easy, due to geopolitical pressure, weak external demand, and a set of challenging domestic economic situations and currency risks. However, his tone is triumphant, pointing out that those demanding situations did not save China. of registering a false economic expansion of 5. 2% last year. The report makes no mention of the low baseline due to the dire economic functionality of 2022 or widespread questions about the accuracy of official figures: Rhodium Group estimates last year’s expansion to be closer to 1. 5%. In this case, the party has enough self-confidence to also set an expansion target of “around 5%” by 2024.
As for Xi’s leadership, the current report credits him with single-handedly leading China through the demanding economic and political situations of 2023. “We owe our achievements in 2023 to General Secretary Xi Jinping, who is at the helm to chart the path. “It reads. . . This is unprecedented language: previous reports gave all the credit to the “strong leadership of the Party Central Committee, with Comrade Xi Jinping among them. “Rhetorical innovations like this make all the difference in an ultra-formalist formula. where each and every word counts.
And it’s much more than rhetoric. Xi’s vision of the “New Era” permeates almost every segment of the tough working relationship. In addition, on Monday the NPC approved new revisions to the Organic Law of the Council of State, which add more support for the Communist Party. control over China’s cabinet and bring it up to speed with the implementation of Xi Jinping Thought. The entire government of the People’s Republic of China was already accountable to Xi in practice, but now it is more official.
In fact, the Communist Party is obviously pleased with Xi’s leadership. But how is this possible, given that the economy is in shambles and investor confidence is at its lowest point in decades?The answer is simple: those aren’t signs the party uses to measure its performance. Western audiences seeking to gauge Xi’s political fortunes take note.
Under Xi, the Communist Party is acting more assertively than ever, thanks to its greater control over the government’s decision-making procedure and surveillance status that allows it to detect and temporarily neutralize dissent. Nothing worries the party more than its political whole. they would possibly complain, but they are not Xi voters. The other Chinese are not even among his voters. Its only constituent is the Communist Party, and it is far more interested in preserving and strengthening its grip on force than in overseeing a thriving economy. .
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That’s not to say that economics is rarely very important. On the contrary, it is one of the party’s most resilient instruments for pursuing its political goals. But the breakneck expansion of the reform era was not sustainable and carried many long-term dangers. The party has long noted a desire to restructure its economy by addressing those dangers and moving toward a more sustainable, if slower, model of expansion. This is precisely what Xi is doing, and his ruthlessness and unprecedented consolidation of strength have helped him triumph over the vested interests that prevented his predecessors from making significant progress in this effort.
Of course, the party can’t forget about economic expansion, but it only wants enough expansion to achieve stability, while pursuing broader priorities such as regulatory reform, technological autonomy, and narrowing wealth gaps through “common prosperity. “
The authorities are well aware that such efforts are anti-growth, but they see them as essential to reducing the threat of a long-term crisis. They could take their foot off the fuel if they feared that the short term would hurt the economy. The economy may only begin to precipitate the crisis they seek to avoid. Or they may simply present a primary stimulus package, as their predecessors did during past periods of economic hardship. So far, they are doing neither, and the fact that they do continue with the economic restructuring is an indication that they have the scenario under control.
Are they correct? Only time will tell. As far as everyone knows, Xi’s leadership may simply rest in a giant card space that will eventually crumble. But the U. S. deserves not to bet on an immediate collapse or a lasting weakening of the Beijing regime. China has already given time to the warring parties. again and again, and the Communist Party is genuinely convinced that it will do it again.
A hostile China threatens America’s friends, allies, and important interests in Asia and abroad.
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Check out the China Transparency Report 2024 here.