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Only a third of China’s trade surplus was with the United States, and only a third of the U.S. deficit was with China. That makes for tricky math for the president-elect.
By Keith Bradsher
Reporting from Beijing
China’s record industrial surplus of just around $1 trillion last year paints a near-perfect picture on the other side of the world: last year’s U. S. industrial deficit, which is expected to reach about $1 trillion.
But only a third of China’s surplus came from the United States. And only a third of the US manufacturing deficit is related to China.
That delicate calculation awaits President-elect Donald J. Trump, who will take office on Monday promising price lists to reduce U. S. industry deficits. Raising taxes only on products from China would probably not reduce the overall imbalance in U. S. industry.
Countries around the world are also running big trade surpluses with the United States — nothing on the scale of China’s, but they are adding up. Other countries need trade surpluses with the United States to pay for their own trade deficits with China.
If the Trump administration raises tariffs only on China, the United States may find itself with bigger trade deficits with other countries as American companies import from them instead. But raising tariffs on imports from a wide range of countries could hit American allies.
A gigantic industrial deficit in the manufactured goods sector, as the United States has done for decades, has eliminated good-paying jobs and weakened the country’s military production base. But the gigantic industrial deficit has also allowed U. S. consumers to take advantage of low costs. Many consumers are reluctant to give it up by paying higher costs for cars, smartphones and other imported goods if Trump is imposing significant tariffs.
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