Former President Donald Trump has taken a blow in the polls in three critical states, after new insights showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Since President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 race and endorsed Harris to succeed him, the polls have changed significantly. While maximum polling knowledge in the past showed Trump leading Biden nationally and in key states, the scenario has now changed: Harris appears to have merit nationally, as well as in some critical states.
Because of the Electoral College system, several battleground states have undue influence over presidential elections. Candidates can lose the popular vote nationally and still win if they gather enough states that are solidly Republican or Democratic. In this cycle, if Harris can win each and every one of them solidly in the Democratic state Biden won in 2020 and also scored victories in the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, he deserves to be able to win the Electoral College.
Data from a ballot released Saturday morning via the New York Times/Siena College, ranked as the most accurate voting institute in the United States according to ABC News’ 538 voting research site, showed Harris outpaced Trump by four percent in the three swing states. vice president with 50% in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while the former Republican president with 46%.
The poll included 619 voters in Michigan, 693 in Pennsylvania and 661 in Wisconsin. The margins of error in the state were plus or minus 4. 8, 4. 2 and 4. 3 percentage points, respectively. The elections took place from 6 to 9 August.
Notably, when the Times held a vote between Biden and Trump from April 28 to May 9, the data showed that the president trailed the former president on three issues in Pennsylvania and one point in Wisconsin. Biden had a 1-point lead in Michigan.
When reached for comment Saturday morning, Trump’s crusader sent Newsweek other Trafalgar Group polls released Friday; showed the former president leading in all 3 battleground states, as well as Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona. Trafalgar Group is described by 538 analysts as a “partisan” pollster affiliated with the Republican Party.
Trump’s crusade later Saturday sent Newsweek an X-message from David Axelrod, a political representative and former aide to President Barack Obama, who raised perspectives with the new Times polling data.
Newsweek reached out to Harris’ campaign email for comment Saturday morning.
At a news conference Thursday at his Mar-a-Lago hotel in Florida, Trump said he “led a lot of things. “He has continually denigrated Harris’ campaign, calling the vice president “incompetent” and “unintelligent. “His running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, rated Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. J. D. Vance, of “weird”.
Poll averages (538) lately show Harris narrowly ahead of Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Michigan, Harris has 44. 9%, compared to Trump’s 42. 9%. In Pennsylvania, the vice president has 45. 5% and the former president 44. 6%. In Wisconsin, averages show Harris at 46. 2%, compared to 44. 4% for Trump.
Updated, 10/08/2024 at 11:11 a. m. ET: This article was updated with comments from David Axelrod on social media.
Update, 08/10/5:11 p. m. ET: Additional information has been added.
Jason Lemon is weekend editor at Newsweek, founded in Brooklyn, New York. Before taking over as editor, Jason’s reporting focused on U. S. politics and foreign affairs. He joined Newsweek in 2018 and had previously worked as a founder at a Middle Eastern media startup called StepFeed. He also worked for a year as a contributor to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and was signed to The Christian Science Monitor, The Palm Beach. Publish, Al Fanar Media and A Magazine. He graduated from the American University of Beirut in Lebanon and Andrews University in Michigan. You can contact Jason by emailing j. lemon@newsweek. com. Languages: English, Spanish, French and Levantine Arabic.
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