The problems have been built within the German government for some time, so it is not unexpected that Christian Lindner has even though everything that exhausts the patience of the chancellor, which leads to his dismissal. The 3 open questions are now: when the elections will be held, how the next government will look, and where there will be space for an immediate replacement in politics.
On the first question, it is rare for Germany to have an election out of cycle, and the early election depends largely on the goodwill of the Chancellor and President to organize it. A January 15 vote of confidence leading to a dissolution and March 9 election was originally flagged. Yet with the opposition CDU pushing hard for an earlier election – though all sorts of arguments (Christmas holidays, availability of paper) were put forward to delay this. A deal has now been struck to hold the confidence vote in December and the election on the 23rd February
Olaf Scholz would possibly be satisfied that he has 3 months to regain a secure electoral momentum, but given his bad history, he only takes position on the clock in his career. The other thing Scholz will have to do is his role at the head of the Social Democrats, and he plans to face a leadership challenge, with Boris Pistorius as the favourite to reposition him.
Based on existing polls, the CDU is the dominant party and it is very likely that Friedrich Merz will be chancellor, the CDU/CSU which constitutes the lion’s percentage of a coalition (including the SD). The chances of the CDU devoting itself to the AfD in coalition talks are close to 0 in our view.
A government directed through Merz would be intelligent news in our opinion, is solid of central law (former president of Blackrock Germany, corporate lawyer) and pro -European. The early replacement would be more competitive for Ukraine and pragmatism in braking debt (especially in terms of defense expenses that it has already hinted).
The other political spaces of interest fear plans and regulation (housing and industry), and energy policy (Merz is a fervent defender of wind energy and prefers to balance renewable energies with nuclear technologies and fusion)
In general, provided that the surveys meet, this is news for Germany.
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