Mysterious drone incursions continue to raise alarm across Europe, with the German government recently reporting several sightings near sensitive military installations. In response, Germany has brazenly warned that Russia could be responsible for those incursions and has taken unprecedented steps to strengthen its anti-drone defense measures.
The latest incidents and similar unexplained activity over NATO facilities and critical infrastructure have heightened concerns about potential efforts involving espionage or sabotage.
On Sunday, January 12, the German government reported that approximately a dozen mysterious drones had been sighted near Manching Air Base in Bavaria, near Ingolstadt.
“Police officers deployed encountered up to ten drones flying over the area,” the Bavarian state police said in a statement. “Despite extensive search measures, including the intervention of a police helicopter, the culprits may not be identified. “
Officials added that throughout mid-December, multiple other drone incursions occurred over Manching Air Base and a German armed forces (Bundeswehr) site at Neuburg an der Donau.
Similar and unexplained drone incursions have also been reported over the U. S. Ramstein air base in southwestern Germany, as well as facilities belonging to German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall and chemical giant BASF.
According to German media, several drones that are over Ramstein Air Base, headquarters of the US Air Forces in Europe and NATO’s Allied Air Command, would fly at more than a hundred miles per hour and are obviously not fan of drones.
These incidents echo similar drone sightings reported late last year over the continental U.S., particularly along the East Coast near New Jersey and New York, as well as near Royal Air Force bases in Lakenheath, Mildenhall, and Feltwell in eastern England.
US officials have claimed that the wave of mysterious drone sightings over the United States last year was largely due to misidentification of traditional aircraft. They also ruled out the option that the sightings were paintings by a foreign adversary, adding that the incidents did not pose a threat to national security or public safety.
“At this time, we have no evidence that these activities are coming from a foreign entity or are the work of an adversary,” Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said at a December 11 press briefing.
In sharp contrast, German authorities have been notably forthright in suggesting that a state actor is likely responsible for the recent waves of mystery drone incidents in their airspace.
Intelligence, defense and law enforcement officials have pointed to Russia as the most likely culprit. The government says the purpose of these raids is probably espionage or the preparation of acts of sabotage.
Although no definitive link to Moscow has been established, the National Criminal Investigation Office and the Central Office for Combating Extremism and Terrorism announced on Monday, January 13, that recent drone sightings over military installations in Bavaria were being investigated. as acts of espionage through Russia.
“As it is ruled out that military installations and arms partners or corporations are targets of espionage in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, extensive search measures have been carried out to identify the drone pilots,” the statement said. Bavarian state police in a statement. statement.
In August 2024, drones were seen flying over nuclear plants, land-based liquefied plant fuel terminals, and chemical plants near Brunsbüttel, Germany, along the North Sea coast.
German media outlet Bild reported that investigators suspect Moscow of involvement in the incidents near Brunsbüttel. Citing unnamed police sources, Bild claimed that Russia had used Orlan-10 drones brought in from a civilian shipment in the North Sea.
The STS Orlan-10 is a fairly unsophisticated and inexpensive fixed-wing UAV used extensively by Russia for reconnaissance and intelligence gathering. According to the U.S. military’s Operational Environment Data Integration Network (ODIN), the Orlan-10 has a ferry range exceeding 370 miles and a maximum speed of just under 100 mph. During reconnaissance missions, it typically operates at altitudes of 3,000 to 5,000 feet, though it has a service ceiling of up to 16,000 feet.
The Orlan-10 can autonomously fly pre-programmed waypoints and has a stay-in-flight capability of up to 16 hours, making it well suited for extended operations.
Based on reports from Moscow’s ongoing war against Ukraine, Russia typically deploys multiple Orlan-10 UAVs in groups, with each drone being used for complementary purposes such as imagery collection, electronic warfare, signals intelligence, and data relay.
The reasons why investigators suspect Russian Orlan-10 drones were to blame for the drone raids near Brunsbüttel in August remain unclear. However, many mysterious drone sightings reported in Europe and the United States in recent years present striking similarities to the characteristics and flight patterns of Orlan-10 drones, adding to their tendency to operate in groups.
At first glance, the US government has largely downplayed the significance of the mysterious drone sightings over the United States. Meanwhile, over the past year, German intelligence and defense officials have expressed serious concerns that Russia is contemplating acts of sabotage against critical Western infrastructure and NATO military sites.
In November, he revealed that a series of fires at Leipzig airport in Germany stemmed from a plot through the Russian military’s intelligence agency, the GRU, to plant hidden explosives on planes shipping to the United States and Canada.
“The group’s goal was also to test the transfer channel for such parcels, which were ultimately to be sent to the United States of America and Canada,” Polish prosecutor Katarzyna Calow-Jaszewska told BBC.
In the last several months, Russian intelligence agents have been accused of being behind arson attacks in Poland, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Germany, Lithuania, and Latvia.
In July 2024, U. S. Army bases in Europe were placed on the highest security alert level at the time, Force Protection Condition (FPCON) “CHARLIE. ” According to Department of Defense regulations, FPCON CHARLIE “is applied when an incident occurs or when intelligence is obtained that indicates that some terrorist action or an attack against the workforce or services is likely. ”
During the heightened alert, U. S. military personnel stationed in Europe were prohibited from wearing uniforms outside the base, and foreign nationals hired at the facilities were denied entry.
“U. S. European Command is taking steps to increase surveillance of our military personnel, their families and our facilities,” Pentapassn deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said at a news conference. “He did it with wonderful caution. I won’t go into more details.
A senior official from the U.S. Intelligence Community, speaking on a condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak on the record, told The Debrief that the heightened security measures were linked to intelligence about planned attacks on defense facilities by Russian agents.
The heightened security measures at US bases lasted a few days. However, less than two weeks after issuing the alert, US and German officials announced that they had exposed and thwarted a series of Russian plots to assassinate several European defense industry leaders, adding Armin Papperger, CEO of the manufacturer of German Rheinmetall weapons.
Concerns about the use of Russian drones for espionage or sabotage have led German officials to propose an amendment to the Aviation Security Law. The amendment, which is expected to be approved by the German government on Wednesday (Jan. 15), would give the military government the power to shoot down unidentified drones operating in German airspace.
Authorizing the military to use kinetic force against unauthorized drones is most likely a reaction to the fact that non-kinetic measures against UAS, such as electronic jamming, spoofing, or directed energy weapons (DEWs), have proven useless in preventing drones. those incursions.
In late November 2024, a suspicious drone was spotted early in the morning near the British Royal Navy’s HMS Queen Elizabeth, while it was docked in the port of Hamburg. German port police attempted to neutralize the drone using HP-47. electronic jammers. However, the drone deployed electronic countermeasures, allowing it to evade capture.
As previously reported by The Debrief, despite significant advancements, non-kinetic counter-drone technologies remain in their infancy, facing challenges such as limited range and high energy demands. Currently, kinetic solutions—using munitions to physically shoot down drones—remain the only consistently reliable countermeasure.
No conclusive evidence has been presented linking Russia to the global waves of mysterious drones. However, Germany’s resolve to blatantly accuse Moscow and authorize its military to shoot down unauthorized drones underscores Berlin’s stance that such incursions pose a serious threat to national security and public safety, an urgency that is echoed in the United States.
At a meeting of the DGAP think tank in Berlin last November, Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst), warned of the dire consequences of Russia’s competitive covert activities. According to Kahl, those hybrid attacks against NATO allies are likely aimed at testing the red lines established through Western partners and the seeding department among NATO members.
“The extensive use of hybrid measures by Russia increases the risk that NATO will eventually consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defense clause,” Kahl said. “At the same time, the increasing ramp-up of the Russian military potential means a direct military confrontation with NATO becomes one possible option for the Kremlin.”
Tim McMillan is a retired police officer, investigative journalist and co-founder of The Debrief. His writings focus on defense, national security, the intelligence community, and psychology-like topics. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan. Tim can be contacted by email: tim@thedebrief. org or by encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail. com