Mysterious drone incursions continue to raise alarms across Europe, with German authorities recently reporting multiple sightings near sensitive military installations. In response, Germany has openly suggested that Russia may be behind these incursions and has taken unprecedented steps to strengthen its drone defense measures.
The most recent incidents and unexplained activity on NATO facilities and critical infrastructure have raised concerns about possible efforts involving espionage or sabotage.
On Sunday, January 12, the German government reported that approximately a dozen mysterious drones had been sighted near Manching Air Base in Bavaria, near Ingolstadt.
“The deployed police officers encountered up to ten drones flying over the area,” the Bavarian state police said in a statement. “Despite extensive search measures and the intervention of a police helicopter, it is possible that the guilty user or users simply will not be identified. “
The officials added that in mid-December, several other drone raids took place over the Manching air base and the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) in Neuburg an der Donau.
Similar unexplained drone incursions were also reported over the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in southwestern Germany and at facilities belonging to German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall and chemicals giant BASF.
According to German media, several drones flying over Ramstein Air Base, the headquarters of the US Air Forces in Europe and NATO Allied Air Command, fly at more than 160 km/h and are evidently drones of fans.
These incidents echo similar drone sightings reported late last year over the continental U.S., particularly along the East Coast near New Jersey and New York, as well as near Royal Air Force bases in Lakenheath, Mildenhall, and Feltwell in eastern England.
U. S. officials say the wave of mysterious drone sightings over the United States last year is largely due to a misidentification of traditional aircraft. They also ruled out the option that the sightings were paintings of a foreign adversary, adding that the events posed no threat to national or public security.
“At this time, we have no evidence that these activities originate from a foreign entity or are the work of an adversary,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said at a briefing. press conference on December 11.
On the contrary, the German government has been outspoken in suggesting that a state actor is most likely to blame for the recent spades of mysterious drone incidents in its airspace.
Intelligence, defense and law enforcement officials have pointed to Russia as the ultimate culprit. The government said that the objective of these incursions is likely to be espionage or the preparation of acts of sabotage.
Although no definitive links to Moscow have been established, the State Office of Criminal Investigation and the Central Office for Combating Extremism and Terrorism announced on Monday, January 13, that the recent drone sightings over military installations in Bavaria are being investigated as potential acts of Russian espionage.
“As it is known that in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, military installations and arms partners or corporations are being spied on, extensive search measures have been carried out to identify the drone pilots,” the police reported. state of Bavaria in a statement.
In August 2024, drones were repeatedly spotted flying over nuclear power plants, land-based liquefied natural gas terminals, and chemical plants near Brunsbüttel, Germany, along the North Sea coast.
The German media outlet Bild reported that investigators suspect Moscow’s involvement in the incidents near Brunsbüttel. Citing unnamed law enforcement sources, Bild claimed that Russia is believed to have used Orlan-10 drones launched from a civilian shipping vessel in the North Sea.
The STS Orlan-10 is a fairly unsophisticated and inexpensive fixed-wing UAV used extensively by Russia for reconnaissance and intelligence gathering. According to the U.S. military’s Operational Environment Data Integration Network (ODIN), the Orlan-10 has a ferry range exceeding 370 miles and a maximum speed of just under 100 mph. During reconnaissance missions, it typically operates at altitudes of 3,000 to 5,000 feet, though it has a service ceiling of up to 16,000 feet.
The Orlan-10 can autonomously fly pre-programmed waypoints and has a dwell capability of up to 16 hours, making it well suited for extended operations.
Based on reports from Moscow’s ongoing war against Ukraine, Russia typically deploys multiple Orlan-10 UAVs in groups, with each drone being used for complementary purposes such as imagery collection, electronic warfare, signals intelligence, and data relay.
It is not yet clear why investigators suspect that Russian Orlan-10 drones were to blame for the drone incursions in August near Brunsbüttel. However, many mysterious drone sightings reported in Europe and the United States in recent years feature striking similarities to the characteristics and flight patterns of Orlan-10 drones, adding to their tendency to operate in clusters.
Outwardly, American authorities have largely downplayed the significance of mystery drone sightings over the U.S. Meanwhile, for the past year, German intelligence and defense officials have been expressing serious concerns that Russia is planning acts of sabotage targeting Western critical infrastructure and NATO military sites.
In November, it was revealed that a series of fires that broke out at the Leipzig airport in Germany stemmed from a plot by Russia’s military intelligence agency, GRU, to place concealed explosives within cargo planes being flown to the U.S. and Canada.
“The objective of the organization was also to check the circulation channel of these packages, which were ultimately going to be sent to the United States and Canada,” Polish prosecutor Katarzyna Calow-Jaszewska told the BBC.
In the last several months, Russian intelligence agents have been accused of being behind arson attacks in Poland, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Germany, Lithuania, and Latvia.
In July 2024, U.S. military bases in Europe were put on a second highest level of security alert, Force Protection Condition (FPCON) “CHARLIE.” According to DoD regulations, FPCON CHARLIE “applies when an incident occurs, or intelligence is received indicating some form of terrorist action or targeting against personnel or facilities is likely.”
During the heightened alert, U.S. military personnel stationed in Europe were prohibited from wearing uniforms off-base, and foreign nationals employed at installations were denied entry.
“U. S. European Command is taking steps to increase surveillance of our military personnel, their families and our facilities,” Pentapassn deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said at a news conference. “He did it with wonderful caution. I won’t go into more details.
A senior official in the U. S. intelligence community, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the record, told The Debrief that the beefed-up security measures were similar to intelligence on planned attacks on defense facilities by Russian agents.
Heightened security measures at U. S. bases lasted for a few days. However, less than two weeks after issuing the alert, U. S. and German officials announced that they had exposed and foiled a series of Russian plots to assassinate several European defense industry executives, adding Armin Papperger, the manufacturer’s chief executive. German Rheinmetall guns.
Concerns about the use of Russian drones for espionage or sabotage have led German officials to propose an amendment to the aviation security law. This amendment, which is expected to be approved by the German government on Wednesday, January 15, would give the army government the power to shoot down unidentified drones operating in German airspace.
The military’s authorization to use kinetic force against unauthorized drones is most likely a reaction to the fact that non-kinetic measures against UAS, such as electronic jamming, spoofing, or directed power weapons (DEWs), have proven useless in preventing drones. these incursions.
In late November 2024, a suspicious drone was spotted early in the morning near the Royal Navy’s HMS Queen Elizabeth, while it was docked in the port of Hamburg. The German port police attempted to neutralize the drone by employing HP-47 electronic jammers. However, the drone deployed electronic countermeasures that allowed it to evade capture.
As reported in the past via The Debrief, despite significant advances, non-kinetic anti-drone technologies remain in their infancy and face demanding situations such as limited diversity and maximum energy demand. Currently, kinetic responses (munitions to physically shoot down drones) remain the only reliable and consistent countermeasure.
No conclusive evidence has been presented linking Russia to global waves of mysterious drones. However, Germany’s resolve to blatantly accuse Moscow and authorize its military to shoot down unauthorized drones underscores Berlin’s position that such incursions pose a serious risk to national security and public safety, an emergency that is being addressed by through the United States.
At a meeting of the DGAP think tank in Berlin last November, Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst), warned of the dire consequences of Russia’s competitive covert activities. According to Kahl, those hybrid attacks against NATO allies are likely aimed at testing the red lines established through Western partners and the seeding department among NATO members.
“The extensive use of hybrid measures by Russia increases the risk that NATO will eventually consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defense clause,” Kahl said. “At the same time, the increasing ramp-up of the Russian military potential means a direct military confrontation with NATO becomes one possible option for the Kremlin.”
Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan. Tim can be reached by email: [email protected] or through encrypted email: [email protected]