The German car industry has won its war to gain some room for maneuver in the European Union’s (EU) ban on new internal combustion engines (ICE) after 2035, but a concession on so-called e-fuels will only gain benefits for a few supercars. Training
The e-fuel winners are probably the drivers of just a few versions of hugely expensive Ferraris, Lamborghinis and Porsches. At this stage, these e-fuels are not commercially viable, and according to Reuters BreakingViews, cost about 4 times the wholesale price of gasoline.
“Combustion engines will live to die another day,” BreakingViews columnist Lisa Jucca said.
Investment bank UBS said it will enable the likes of Porsche to keep iconic models like the 911 running with a combustion engine, but not much more.
“We don’t see e-fuels as a mass market technology because e-fuel production is an inefficient use of clean energy. Also, the cost of e-fuels is uncompetitive, at least for the time being,” UBS said in a report.
“BEVs (battery electric vehicles) will most likely be the cheapest generation until 2035,” UBS said.
To produce e-fuel, carbon dioxide will need to be captured from commercial processes or from the air and combined with green hydrogen.
Carlos Tavares, CEO of Stellantis, has doubts about the green credentials of e-fuels.
“I think e-fuels will be another technology direction that is going to be developed. The industry will have to demonstrate that they are carbon neutral, from the capturing of carbon on one side and the emissions of carbon from the engine on the other,” Tavares was quoted as saying by Automotive News Europe.
Tavares speaking at Stellantis’ “Freedom of Mobility” forum, created following its withdrawal from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association.
BreakingViews said e-fuel doesn’t have much luck with sedans and SUVs and is better suited to other uses.
“Cost and energy scarcity suggest e-fuels may be best used in sectors that are harder to convert to electric engines, like trucks, shipping or planes,” BreakingViews said.
Al Bedwell, director, Global Powertrain, at LMC Automotive, doubted there would ever be enough e-fuel made to be viable for use in autos generally, and agreed aviation or maritime might be better suited.
“Yes, e-fuels can play a vital role in the light vehicle sector in Europe in 2035 and beyond. But they may not be important. “Decarbonisation of the ICE fleet through e-fuel looks attractive, but will occur naturally as BEVs upgrade ICE cars – the ZEV 2035 target has been selected to take until 2050 to complete this process,” Bedwell said. in a report.
“Right now, e-fuels are a hot topic, as they provide the downstream industry with a way to win politically useful concessions from regulators. But the existing evidence indicates that e-fuels in the European light-duty vehicle sector are being marginalized, or even taking off,” Bedwell said.
Germany’s veto of the EU’s ban on ECI in 2035 came after dissension within the ruling coalition. The conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP) wanted so-called artificial fuels or e-fuels to be allowed after 2035. German unions were also calling for the ban on ICE to be eased. They claim that if the blanket ban on ICE had been enforced, thousands of jobs in Germany would be at risk. Italy and Poland were also opposed.
According to the Brussels-based green strain organization Transport & Environment (T&E), the fuels are a much less environmentally friendly solution for cars than battery electric cars. A car running on natural e-fuels would particularly emit more CO2 over its life cycle than electric cars, T&E said.
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