Are you hiding from Covid-19? I ‘m. The country explains why it is simple: the h8 threat of death from the virus.
Last week I recalled the threat through this report from the New York Department of Health and Columbia University, which estimated that, on average, between March and May, the threat of inflamed SARS-CoV-2 was 1.45%.
It’s more than your chances of dying in a car accident. Every reason the force cuts you off, whether it’s one and either one and either the two laps taken too fast, either one and, in any case, you sleep the most on the road, all in one. It’s not a catch disease. For an individual of my mother’s age, the death threat was 13.83%, but it could be as high as 17%. That’s about 1 in 6, or the threat you lose on Russian roulette. This is never a game I’d rather my mother play.
The rate at which other Americans die from coronavirus has been estimated several times and is calculated in other ways. For example, if you are an official covid-1nine “case” on the government books, your chances of dying are more than 5%, as you are sick enough to have requested assistance and been examined.
Instead, this study calculated the “infection mortality rate” or IFR. It’s lucky you die once you’re infected. This is the real threat to remember in mind. This includes other Americans who are asymptomatic, who are just sniffing or resisting at home and who are never tested.
Because we don’t know with whom those other Americans have never been tested, whether R figures are simple up to an estimate, and the 1.45% figure calculated for New York is higher than that of other highs, of which the big apple varies by 1%. This could be due to higher rates of diabetes and median diseases in the city, or to stipes used in the study.
It may also be true that his non-public chances of dying for covid-1nine may be other than average. Location is critical: cruise or city shipping, as well as your gender, age and if you have pre-existing fitness issues. If you’re in college, your chances of death are probably 100 times lower, however, once you’re morbidly obese, they overlook it. Poor physical condition (cancer, clogged arteries) also greatly increases what scientists call “odds ratio” of death.
The maximum critical factor, however, is age. I have looked at the actuarial cadars and the death threat for a boy in my age organization (I am 51 years old) is approximately 0.4% consistent with the year for all reasons. So, if I get covid-1nine, my death option is consistent with a play station 3 times my annual threat of all reasons (since I’m a boy, my covid-1nine threat is more consistent than average). Is this an opportunity I can live with? Perhaps, however, the difficulty is that I have to take that extra threat right now, immediately, not spread out in time when I can’t see or worry.
Tbh, these% don’t help me. A list of comparable hazards applicable with unusual behaviors that I accept without complaints would be more useful. Do you know examples of big apples?
On Twitter, some readers have complained that average threats don’t tell them much about thinking or acting. What is the real threat of a 1.45% dying option? It was not undeniable, because mathematically, you cannot face such a wide threat very often. Skydiving, perhaplaystation? According to the U.S. Paratroopers’ Association, there is only 1 death per 220,301 jumplaystation. It would take 3,200 jumplaystations to adapt to the average death threat of a covid.
Risk perceptions differ, but it’s the immense difference in IFR risk for the young (under 25) and the elderly (over 75) that really should complicate the reopening discussion. Judging from the New York data, Grandpa’s death chances from infection are 1,000 times that of Junior. So yes, we need schools to keep kids occupied, learning, and healthy. And for them, thank goodness, the chances of death are very low. But reopening schools and colleges has the ugly side effect that those with the lowest risk could be, in effect, putting a gun to the head of those with the highest (although there is still much we do not know about how transmissible the virus is among children).
The virus is now spreading rapidly in the United States, after the rustic construction of the house established a challenging mitigation plan. At the rate of spread provided (40,000 showed time consistent with the day (and consistent with a breeding station five to ten times more than in reality) – only two years left before the United States has inflamed. This suggests that we are moving toward what has been the worst-case scenario from the start: more than a hundred million more inflamed Americans and a quarter of 100, 0000 deaths.
Now you may wonder what your own death threat is. Online, you may be able to locate the application station that is calculated further, such as covid19survivalcalculator.com, which uses World Health Organization ratings reports. I gave him my age, gender, frame mass index and underlying conditions and learned that my overall death threat was slightly higher than average. But the site also sought to compare my chances of being inflamed in the first place. After telling her that I was at a distance of social and that she was my best friend dressed in a mask and my rural postcode, the concept of device only had 5% to inflame me.
I clicked, the page was frowned upon and the general answer appeared: “Survival probability: 99.975%”.