by Andrew Prokop
Kamala Harris entered the presidential race just over two weeks ago as an underdog.
Since then, the mood of Democrats has been. . . and Harris’ polls have taken a step forward. But the scenario has not advanced as far as one might think. At least not yet.
According to polls, Trump is no longer the clear favorite to win, but Harris also didn’t take a transparent lead. Polls, especially in swing states, recommend an incredibly close race that can go either way.
Let’s be clear: this is a fundamental improvement for Democrats, compared to President Joe Biden’s numbers.
Late last year, Trump took a lasting lead over Biden in polls nationally and in nearly every single key state. For Democrats, erasing that advantage is a pretty big deal and is contributing to the turmoil of the Trump campaign lately. Team Trump thought they were sure to beat Biden, and now they’re not so sure.
But a Harris victory is also not certain. This is partly because, due to the magic of the Electoral College, it is not the national polls that give the result, but the swing states. And the scene in the swing states is murky.
Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls last week were encouraging for Harris, showing her leading in Michigan and, to a lesser extent, in Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. The problem is that they also gave Trump advantages in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, as well as a tie in Georgia. If those polls were accurate, the election would be entirely about the final results in Georgia.
And recent polls of swing states (from Fox, Public Policy Polling, and Emerson) have shown that Trump still holds a small lead in the most swing states.
It’s conceivable that the sparse polls in swing states have been slow to catch up with Harris’s breakthrough national vibe, and a series of new polls showing Harris clearly getting credit are imminent.
But in 2016 and 2020, Trump did particularly better in key Electoral College states than Democrats (and most pollsters) expected—enough to thwart Hillary Clinton’s popular vote victory and counterbalance as much as possible. of Biden. Harris’ biggest challenge will be saving it again.
The past two weeks have gone as well as one might expect for Democrats, and far more than many pundits had predicted. Once the confusing procedure of isolating Biden was completed, Harris was thankfully invited to report to it. Democrats who now have a genuine chance of winning again. Despite being the sitting vice president, Harris can be said to include the new guy in some tactics: a 59-year-old woman of color who had never been president before, unlike Trump, a 78-year-old man. Former president of one year. She claims to be the candidate of change.
Harris also got some pretty positive media coverage. This is in part simply because things have been going objectively well for him so far. But he also benefits from what is known as the “honeymoon” phenomenon, in which a newly augmented political leader receives a positive reception. press just for the novelty of it. And the challenge with honeymoons is that they eventually end.
For example: When Harris ran for the No. 1 Democratic presidency in 2019, her first debate, when she criticized Biden’s 1970s opposition to school bus desegregation in a moment that went viral, was incredibly successful, allowing him to soar in the polls.
But as the crusade progressed, she struggled to maintain that momentum. Days later, she claimed that her views on the current bus policy were none other than Biden’s. Later, she fought to expand a coherent fitness policy. And her crusade “has a hotbed of drama and slander,” according to CNN. In the end, she dropped out of the race before voting began.
This time, Harris masterfully played the inside game by rallying the party for her campaign, drawing enthusiastic crowds and raising a gigantic amount of money. But there are other things he hasn’t done yet. For example: he hasn’t given any interviews or press conferences since Biden left, something Republicans complain about. His selection of a vice-presidential candidate may also generate controversy.
Democrats can only hope that the honeymoon will get bigger in another three months. But inevitably, debatable questions will defend Harris, as it does all presidential candidates. The media’s policy on the matter will be at least a little less positive. The crusade’s customers will depend on how well it survives the storms ahead.
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