– Polymarché (@Polymarket) August 7, 2024
As Polymarket noted on Twitter, Harris and Walz, as well as Donald Trump’s running mate J. D. Vance (R-OH), either crusade in Michigan.
Harris’ ratings on the site have increased since July 21, when Biden withdrew. At the time, his chances were 30%, compared to 64% for Trump. By then, as Biden was recovering from COVID-19 and rumors of his withdrawal becoming widespread, the president’s chances had already fallen to 7%.
Prediction markets like Polymarketplace present themselves as significant resources of opportunities and predictors of market sentiment, unlike public opinion polls. However, prediction market participants are self-selected, and Polymarketplaceplace, in particular, is heavily skewed in favor of crypto users, who use Polygon. a layer-2 scaling solution on the Ethereum blockchain.
Polymarket quotes temporarily react to breaking news, such as the Trump assassination attempt. Meanwhile, Harris’ selection of Walz over Shapiro on Tuesday shows that prediction markets can fail.
The platform recently settled on noted statistician Nate Silver as an advisor. Silver’s former vote aggregator, FiveThirtyEight, is now owned by ABC as 538, while Silver publishes his own research under the name Silver Bulletin.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 17, 2024
Polymarket has seen explosive traffic and popularity in recent weeks, largely due to the presidential race and American politics. In July, an incredibly chaotic month that included an assassination attempt on Trump and President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, the site facilitated a record transaction volume of $387 million, according to a Dune dashboard. This more than triples its June volume.
In fact, one week into August, Polymarket has already accumulated $130 million in transactions.
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