Ukraine is bracing for a “huge” Russian reaction as Kyiv’s forces advance further into the Kursk border region; It is not yet clear what that retaliation will look like.
“Russia will feel the need to give a very tough response, anything huge, to show the world that it is omnipotent and that anything like Kursk will go unpunished,” an anonymous senior Ukrainian defense source told the Times of London on Sunday.
Questions revolve around Moscow’s most likely reaction after normal Ukrainian forces crossed from the Sumy region in the country’s northeast into Kursk last Tuesday. The Ukrainians temporarily gained territory as Russia scrambled to respond to the biggest significant advance on their territory since the start of a full-scale war at least two and a half years ago.
Russia’s public messages insisted that Moscow had stopped the Ukrainian advance, but Russian government reports on Sunday said fighting was continuing around villages up to 20 miles from the Ukrainian border, Obshchii Kolodez added.
On Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry said Ukraine had attempted to “break through” around Kauchuk, a village just east of Obshchii Kolodez in central Russian territory, over the past day. Moscow said it destroyed one tank and eight Bradley infantry fighters. automobiles supplied throughout the United States. Newsweek can independently determine this report.
Images widely shared on social media appear to show Ukrainians tearing down Russian flags in Kursk villages, some replaced by Kyiv’s yellow and blue flag. Moscow also launched an “anti-terrorist operation” in several border regions as part of efforts to push back Ukrainian troops. It is run through the Federal Security Service (FSB), the main successor to the Soviet-era KGB.
The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, said on Sunday that Ukraine most likely had complexes in western and northwestern Kursk in recent days.
Alexei Smirnov, acting governor of the Kursk region, said at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday that Ukraine had taken 28 settlements and that 2,000 citizens were missing from those villages.
About 121,000 more people were evacuated from the Kursk border areas, Smirnov said. Vyacheslav Gladkov, governor of the neighboring Belgorod region, said Monday that the regional government had begun evacuating citizens near the border.
The Russian government “has been seriously embarrassed, and the loss of territory and the evacuation of civilians will be seen in Russia as evidence that they ‘can protect themselves,'” said Matthew Savill, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank.
Putin called the operation a “large-scale provocation” last week and said Monday that Moscow will have to “expel the enemy from our territories,” according to a Kremlin statement.
Kiev officials have largely avoided commenting on the cross-border advance, although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke on Saturday of “actions aimed at expanding the war to the territory of the aggressor. “
The precise objectives of the operation remain unclear; some have speculated that the advance on Kursk could simply put Ukraine in a greater negotiating position. Or it could simply underline the proximity of the war to the Russian population and at the same time force Moscow to withdraw its resources from the most ferocious areas. front-line fighting in the east.
“The goal is to expand the enemy’s positions, inflict maximum casualties and destabilize the situation in Russia, because they cannot reach their own border,” an anonymous Ukrainian official told Agence France-Presse.
Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said Sunday that the raid was aimed at intimidating Russian civilians and “made no sense from the army’s point of view. “
“The business reaction of the Russian armed forces will not be long in coming,” Zakharova added in a statement published on the Telegram messaging application.
The retaliation “will be limited to 4 missiles,” the source told The Times. Russia could fire “hundreds” of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as unleash the infamous Shahed kamikaze drones that have threatened Ukraine since the early months of the war. , the source suggested.
Ukraine has already borne the brunt of a large-scale airstrike directed through Russia. The Ukrainian said Sunday that a father and his 4-year-old son were killed in overnight missile and drone strikes in kyiv.
Ukrainian politician Oleksiy Goncharenko said Ukrainian cities were already accustomed to large-scale shelling. “I don’t think there’s any specific retaliation,” he told Newsweek.
Russia would likely step up its moves in Kyiv or elsewhere in Ukraine, he said, but Russia is unlikely to launch an offensive on Sumy or increase pressure on Ukrainian positions along the eastern front.
Russia would possibly decide to intensify its attacks on civilian centers and attack Ukraine with bombs, said Daniel Rice, a former special adviser to the Ukrainian military and current president of the American University in Kyiv.
However, Russian planes dropping those bombs will have to contend with man-portable air defense systems operated through Ukraine and recently delivered F-16s with long-range air-to-air missiles, Rice told Newsweek.
Another option would be to allow Ukraine to continue on its way to Kursk so that the Russian military can attack large numbers of Ukrainian fighters on Russian soil, warned Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. “It may seem politically bad for Russia,” he told Newsweek, but this strategy may also have some military merit.
Otherwise, Russia could redouble its slow but steady advances toward the strategic city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine and into Donetsk, Miron said.
Ivan Stupak, a former member of Ukraine’s security services, warned that senior Kremlin officials would not choose to continue the current Russian offensive in an attempt to get revenge on Kursk. They would want anything on a larger scale that is obviously a direct reaction to Ukraine, he told Newsweek.
Ultimately, Russia faces a “very complicated decision” in crafting a reaction that sends a strong signal to Western countries that support Ukraine — and supply weapons to Kyiv — and also avoid open escalation with NATO, Miron said.
Many members of the Biden administration are concerned about an escalation, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, but some U. S. officials are concerned that Russia could particularly intensify its missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
Ukraine’s next steps are unclear.
Retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan said in a social media post that Ukraine could simply try to hold on to the Kursk territory it took until negotiations take place, partially withdraw from Kursk, or withdraw completely to Ukrainian territory. Each option carries another threat point for troops and different outcomes, Ryan said.
RUSI’s Savill said: “Although the Ukrainians have reversed the public narrative that they were on the defensive, it is unlikely that they will need to sustain a significant incursion for months. Captured and to what end.
Ellie Cook is a security and defense reporter for Newsweek based in London, United Kingdom. Her paintings focus largely on the war between Russia and Ukraine, the US military, weapons systems, and emerging technologies. She joined Newsweek in January 2023, after applying as a reporter for the Daily Express and graduating in International Journalism from City University of London.
Languages: English, Spanish.
Ellie can be reached via email at e. cook@newsweek. com.
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