Let us begin, as we do, with an undeniable question.
Which quarterback do you want?
It’s draft season, of course, and quarterback is a key position. So let’s do a little research.
I’ll tell you about two others.
There’s no polite way to say it. “Quarterback A” is on a downward spiral. For 3 consecutive seasons, he has achieved less success than last year, and you have to think that the coaching staff has realized this and is taking the reins away from him. He also had fewer pass attempts 3 years in a row. His interception rate was the highest since he became a starter, he had more game-consistent sacks than ever and he became a dunker and dunker. He’s not even a middle-of-the-road QB, as this guy was below league average last year in yards consistent with the pass attempt, yards gained consistently with the pass attempt, and yards gained consistently with the final touch of the pass. Array In Fantasy last year, founded In Game Matters, was outside the top 12 at the position; In fact, some of the players who scored more than him last season are substitutes this year. And maybe our boy deserves to be too. After hitting career lows in passer rating, game-consistent yards, TD rate, and TD/INT ratio, one has to wonder if the end is near. Given the lack of power with his legs (he didn’t have any rush landings last year), he has to produce fantasy problems with his arm alone and it’s hard to see that suddenly going down this season. It’s been almost a decade since his most productive season and when his consistent landing percentage is worse than Derek Carr’s and his consistent poor throws and his consistent pass attempt percentage (according to Pro Football Reference) are better than by Russell Wilson and Jake BrowningArray, it’s probably time to see if you can get a training position or an on-air job. Either way, it’s unlikely he’ll be inconsistent enough to draft “Quarterback A” this season.
Meanwhile, after leading so many coaches to fantasy titles last year, “Quarterback B” was rewarded with a shiny new contract this offseason and is in position to rock. Ranked among the top six quarterbacks in Fantasy last year, “Quarterback B” is on a major upward trend. For three years in a row, he has increased his attempts, completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns each season, while decreasing his sack percentage consistently from year to year. And you have to love his aggressiveness on the field. “Quarterback B” was the NFL’s top six last year in average scoring intensity and touchdowns consistent with the pass attempt, as well as the NFL’s top 10 last year among starters in terms of problems. consistent fantasy dropbacks, which is a wonderful statistic when you realize our guy led the NFL in consistent dropbacks from last year’s game. He only had one game last year in which he threw for less than 300 yards. He only had two games last year in which he threw less than 3 touchdowns. But that’s not just a positive, as he’s also incredibly consistent, and he never scored fewer than 16 Fantasy numbers in a game last year. He is a competitive passer on a team with one of the most productive wide receivers in the NFL and a highly touted rookie. Sky is the limit for “Quarterback B” this year.
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Ok, which quarterback are you this season?
Please note that everything I have just written about each of the players mentioned above is one hundred percent true, highly researched, verified, and absolutely accurate.
You’re in the draft room, time is running out and you have to make a pick in the next 10 seconds.
You listened to podcasts, watched videos, and read a lot, adding about 500 words of mine filled with statistics from two other sectors. You’ve been preparing for this day all summer. The selection will be easy, right? You know which QB you want, right?I made it pretty obvious. Take the obviously better QB and let’s start determining which of our league friends we’re going to ruin by getting his starting RB replacement, right?
Well, wait a second. Before you click “draft,” there’s one fact you want to know.
“Quarterback B” is Joe Flacco.
Oh, what about “Quarterback A”?
It’s Patrick Mahomes.
Yes.
You see, I can make the stats say what I want. Literally, whatever you want. What’s the phrase? There are 3 types of lies. Lies, damn lies and statistics. I can talk up or down about any player I want. I just have to choose the right stats for the job. Or use the free search equipment on FantasyLife. com or ask my manufacturer Damian Dabrowski to locate it. the correct statistic, as I did in other topics of this column.
Everything in this column is an accurate statistic that has been very well researched and double-checked. These are black and white facts, conscientiously verified, purposely thought out, one hundred percent true, indisputable.
This tells a PART of the story.
The component of the story that I need you to see. But ONLY this component. The component that supports the opinion I have about a player. Any opinion I need to check to convince you.
For example, this year, I wanted to try to diss Patrick Mahomes (“Quarterback A”), my personal QB3 this season. So yeah, I looked into the fact that he had a tough year (for him) last season. While it’s true that his pass attempts have decreased for 3 straight seasons, I didn’t mention that they went from 658 to 648 to 597 (and he only played in 16 games last year, down from 17 the last two seasons). I talked about the shorter passage, but I neglected to mention that it was probably because all the deep threats in it were terrible. KC led the NFL in drops and had the second-worst sack rate on throws more than 20 yards downfield. The sound you just heard was MVS dropping another ball.
However, I didn’t mention that this year the Chiefs kept that challenge going by signing Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy, while expecting big things in year two from rookie Rashee Rice. I used Mahomes’ fantasy woes based on game average (via Fantasy Life), which put him up there with guys who didn’t play much last year like Joe Flacco, Anthony Richardson, and Justin Fields, so I didn’t have need to mention it at all. Mahomes was QB8 last year. Yes, he didn’t have a rushing touchdown last year for the first time in his career, but I also left out the fact that his 389 rushing yards were the most of his career. The fact is, according to Pro Football Reference, Mahomes actually had the fifth-worst bad throw consistent with percentage, but strangely Russell Wilson and Jake Browning were better, so I talked to them without telling you where he was on the overall list or using the other two . . guys who were older than Patrick: Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott. Finally, it’s true that Mahomes’ most productive year was six years ago, however, if you hit 50 touchdowns in 2018, you can be forgiven for not getting back to that level.
Meanwhile, Joe Flacco had a crazy, magical five-game stretch last year in Fantasy. And he’s really led a lot of fantasy managers to a title. But it was only five games, so due to the skipper’s small size, it was easy to manipulate all of his averages. Considering how little he played the last two years with the Jets and their poor offensive line, it wasn’t hard to see an upward trend in the stats he wanted. The Browns did this deep and last year in this five-game pattern, which helped and, yes, on a per-game basis, Flacco was truly QB4 last year. I really made this statistic more confusing so I could discourage you. But I didn’t mention all the interceptions, his age (39), the fact that he was on his couch for much of the season, the fact that Cleveland wouldn’t even re-sign him, his collapse in the playoff game or that his new and brilliant contract was to be a substitute in Indy. An Indy team that has a very smart WR in Michael Pittman and a touted rookie in Adonai Mitchell, but none of that worries Flacco, who will be holding a clipboard. When you’re down, the sky is the limit because there’s still nowhere to pass up.
And I can do what I did with Mahomes and Flacco for any NFL player. Because, you see, there are very few things in this world that I’m smart about. But is there anything I’m a world-class master at? Write and manipulate statistics to tell the story I want.
And I need to tell you a secret: I’m not the only one.
Everyone does it. ALL. Some are better than others, but everyone else does it. They do it in fantasy football analysis, in presentations, in pop culture, and in bar discussions. And wait until this year’s election to witness it 24/7 on both sides.
Everyone tells you the stats or story edit that supports what THEY think, but they don’t tell you the full story.
And that’s probably the most productive recommendation I can give you about fantasy football research all season long. That is why this is the first column I write each year, presenting the same arguments, reminding you of the same message and making the same confession.
Because it is Array There is no more information.
Because when you begin your research, you want to realize that NOTHING you read, watch, or hear from me this year (or otherwise) is black and white. These are ALL sunshine shades of gray.
Opinions, really. Opinions provided as facts. Over the course of this offseason (and, frankly, life), millions of people will tell you why this player is wonderful and this player is a slob and why you can’t leave your draft without this guy, but you have to. DO. Let others recruit that other guy and those are just player reviews. They will provide data, statistics and adapt movie clips to your side. They will share a carefully selected quote from a coach or the top 3 plays from the educational camp that match their opinion. AND ONLY this review.
The challenge these days is NOT locating data, but examining it to decide what to ignore and what to ignore. We live in an era of data overload. Take my fool, for example. Here at NBC Sports/Rotoworld/Peacock, I do a daily one-hour showcase (“Fantasy Football Happy Hour”) that can be watched on YouTube, wherever you get your podcasts and streams on Peacock (starting August 14) from Monday to Friday. Fridays throughout the season. During the season, I also have a Sunday morning showing (“Fantasy Football Pregame”) from 11 a. m. to 5 p. m. ET at 1 p. m. ET on Peacock and YouTube. I watch Football Night in America before one and both Sunday Night Football games on NBC Sports and Peacock. I post constantly on my social media, where I am @MatthewBerryTMR on Twitter/X, Instagram, Facebook and TikTok. I also own FantasyLife. com, which sends out a free daily fantasy football newsletter, and this year I partnered with Rotoworld to offer FantasyLife+ with the Rotoworld Draft Guide. FantasyLife+ introduces our next-gen Draft Champion tool that will sync with your league settings, customize rankings, cheat sheets, levels and projections for your league format, assign private and opponent draft features like Zero RB, Punt TE , etc. Live ratings after a pick, the player selects predictions and chances of a player lasting until his next pick, a draft assistant and will compare the draft of him. It also has a League Sync tool, a Start/Sit tool, Trade Rater, a Keeper tool for members of Keeper/Dynasty leagues, a Waiver tool, proprietary projections, usage splits and a ton of other equipment to help you with DFS, Pick’. ems, Best Ball and sports betting (game models, trending teams, projections, etc. ). Seriously, check it out and find out why we won “Best Product” one of the last two years at the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association Awards.
The Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide is now available exclusively thanks to a new partnership with Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life. Purchase a FantasyLife subscription and get Rotoworld Draft guides, as well as award-winning Fantasy, Gambling, and DFS tools. Use ROTO10 at checkout to save 10%!
I also own RotoPass. com, a bundled site that includes FantasyLife, a Peacock subscription, and many other premium sites at low prices. It’s just the most productive cash price on the internet.
Blatant traffic jams are put aside. . . It’s just me, right? There are many other men like me who are making heavily forged paintings in NBCSports. com, FantasyLife. com and other places. A lot of other media companies, fantasy sports sites and it shows where we talk, write, discuss, tweet and play and blah, blah, blah. We all seek to manipulate him into thinking about what we do, starting with this column.
Frankly, it is. . . A LOT.
So your job? Watch the games, investigate, find out which analysts you think you are faithful to and whose thinking coincides with yours. Question everyone and everything you hear, several times, take everything into account and then make your own decision.
Because, honestly, that’s all each of us does. Take a small component of a giant symbol and make a call.
Everything that appears below is an absolutely one hundred percent accurate fact. Some of them are about players, others about trends and nothing tells the whole story.
These are a hundred facts you’ll want to know before you write in 2024. What you do with them is up to you.
1. Last year, Kyler Murray returned in Week 10 to a 1-8 Arizona Cardinals team.
2. De weeks 10-18 of last year, the Cardinals’ most sensible catcher, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, played only 3 complete games.
3. De weeks 10-18 last year, Kyler Murray scored at least 17 points in six of 8 games and finished in the top 10 quarterbacks in points per game for the fourth straight season.
4. De fact, since Kyler Murray entered the NFL, in terms of game-related issues, he is the fifth-best QB in fantasy football.
5. Since Kyler Murray entered the NFL, he has averaged 241 passing yards per game.
6. Since Kyler Murray entered the NFL, he has averaged 38 yards per game.
7. During a 17-game season, those averages would total 4,097 passing yards and 646 yards.
According to FantasyLife. com’s Dwain McFarland, since 2011, QBs who have at least 3,800 passing yards and 550 rushing yards have averaged 23. 5 points per game and finished in the top two QBs.
8A. Kyler Murray, who added Marvin Harrison Jr. this offseason, is lately QB8 on Yahoo/Sleeper and QB10 on ESPN.
9. Over the past two years, inside, Lions quarterback Jared Goff has averaged 18. 3 points per game.
10. For comparison, last year’s QB5, Jordan Love, averaged 18. 8 points per game.
11. This year, the Lions will only play 3 games.
11A. Jared Goff is lately QB16 on ESPN.
12. Last year, five other quarterbacks rushed for at least 400 yards.
13. These players averaged 19. 9 fantasy problems consistent with the game, which would have been QB5 last year.
14. As a freshman, Kyler Murray rushed 93 times for 544 yards, the third-highest rush by a QB in the NFL this season.
15. Trained through Cliff Kingsbury.
16. In his two seasons as a starter at LSU, new senior quarterback Jayden Daniels has totaled 2,019 yards and 21 touchdowns.
17. This year, Daniels will be coached by Kliff Kingsbury.
17A Daniels is lately QB14 on Yahoo and QB 15 on Sleeper.
18. Au the past two seasons, Justin Herbert has been ranked in TD.
19. Last year, Justin Herbert had a career-low in pass attempts, passing yards, and finishing percentage.
20. This offseason, the Chargers have lost 66% of their receptions and 63% of their receiving yards through 2023, when Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett left the team.
21. This offseason, the Chargers have Jim Harbaugh as head coach and Greg Roman as offensive coordinator.
22. In 8 of Roman’s 10 seasons as offensive coordinator, his offenses ranked or declined in the passing offense.
23. During Jim Harbaugh’s tenure as head coach in San Francisco, the 49ers ranked in the top rating.
24. And 31′ in passing attempts.
25. La last season, Trevor Lawrence had the sixth-most ball attempts.
26. Last season, Trevor Lawrence ranked in the top 10 in terms of average depth of target.
27. This offseason, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Brian Thomas Jr. , who led the FBS with 17 receiving touchdowns in 2023, totaling plays of more than 30 yards.
27A The Jaguars added free agent WR Gabe Davis.
28. From the NFL, Davis leads all players in average goal intensity and is second in receiving yards.
28A Lawrence is writing the QB19 call on Yahoo.
29. Last season, no quarterback had a higher average target intensity than. . . Will Levis.
30. More than 22% of his passes have traveled more than 20 meters off the ground.
31. No QB exceeded 15%.
31A This offseason, the Titans signed WR Calvin Ridley.
32. La last season, Ridley ranked in the top five most sensible for deep targets.
33. Last season, among WRs who saw at least 30 targets, DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks ranked among the 18 most sensitive in average target depth.
33A. The Titans signed RB Tony Pollard, WR Tyler Boyd, C Lloyd Cushenberry and selected OT J. C. Latham with the seventh overall pick.
33B. The Titans have Brian Callahan as their new head coach.
34. In his five seasons as the Bengals’ offensive coordinator, Cincinnati ranked fifth in final touch rate.
34A. Will Levis is selected as QB24 at Yahoo.
35. La last season among RBs, Christian McCaffrey had more games with at least 18 fantasy issues than. . . Derrick Henry.
36. In his last 72 games, Derrick Henry has 68 touchdowns.
37. Last season, Henry DID NOT have at least 1,000 total yards OR 10 rushing touchdowns in 2017.
38. In over two seasons, the Titans have ranked in the bottom 3 in the NFL in consistent yards BEFORE contact.
39. This offseason, Derrick Henry joined the Baltimore Ravens.
40. Over the past two seasons, the Ravens have led the NFL in yards BEFORE contact percentage.
41. Since Lamar Jackson was the starting quarterback in Baltimore in 2019, Ravens RBs are averaging an NFL-high 4. 8 yards consistent with carries.
42. La season, Ravens running backs Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell and Melvin Gordon combined for 20 touchdowns and 1,696 yards.
43. Si the Ravens’ running backs were just one player, that running back would have scored 289. 6 rushing points alone.
43A. Last season, 289. 6 points would be the second-best RB in scoring and 0. 5 PPR, and one point behind the second-best in full PPR.
43B. Derrick Henry RB8 on ESPN and RB10 on Sleeper.
44. La last season, 4 RBs had a higher percentage of runs in the red zone than their team. Isiah Pacheco.
45. Pacheco is also top 10 in the NFL in percentage of his team’s overall rushing attempts.
46. According to Next Gen Stats, Pacheco was among the top 10 in the NFL last year in rushing yards compared to expectations.
47. As Ian Hartitz of FantasyLife. com points out, he achieved 91. 5% of his 82 career goals.
48. La last season, adding the playoffs, Isiah Pacheco played seven games with Jerrick McKinnon.
49. In those games, Pacheco averaged 21. 4 hits, 11. 7% target percentage and. . . 19. 9 hits per game.
50. La last season, 19. 9 points per game would have been RB3 in PPR.
50A. Jerick McKinnon has been a free agent lately.
50B. Pacheco is being selected lately as RB12 in Sleeper.
51. La last season, the Detroit Lions ranked sixth in the NFL in red zone rush rate.
52. Last season, three players had more carries inside the 5-yard line than. . . David Montgomery.
53. In Week 7 of last year, David missed the Lions game.
54. Jahmyr Gibbs had 20 touches that week for 126 total yards, one touchdown, and 27. 6 PPR scoring problems.
55. As of Week 7 of last season, Jahmyr Gibbs is the fourth-most productive RB in fantasy.
56. David returned in week 10.
57. As of Week 10 of last season, Jahmyr Gibbs was the fifth-best RB in fantasy.
58. In Week 10 of last season, David was RB13 in Fantasy.
55A. Jahmyr Gibbs writes lately as RB6 on Yahoo.
55B. And David was recently selected as RB21 on ESPN.
59. La season, Alvin Kamara averaged 19. 6 touches per game.
60. Led all RBs in terms of consistent targets with consistent percentage and catches consistent with the game.
61. Su teammate Kendre Miller, who missed nine games last season, left the first practice of camp with a hamstring injury, after which Saints coach Dennis Allen reportedly said, “It’s hard to be a part of the team when you’re in the group. “room all the time.
62. La last season, among the ranked RBs, no rider averaged fewer touch-consistent fantasy issues than Kamara’s teammate. . . Jamaal Williams.
62A. Last season, Alvin Kamara finished as RB3 due to game-related issues.
62B. This year, Alvin Kamara RB18 on Yahoo.
63. From weeks 1-6, Tony Pollard had a 7. 3% avoidance rate, the second lowest among RBs.
64. Last December, Tony Pollard told reporters that he didn’t start feeling fully recovered from his damaged leg the year before until after the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye.
65. From weeks 8 through 18 last season, Tony Pollard had a consistent 25 with a percentage that avoided the acquisition rate, the third-highest among RBs.
66. This offseason, Pollard’s new team, the Tennessee Titans, acquired C Lloyd Cushenberry, drafted OT J. C. Latham No. 7 overall, hired legendary offensive line coach Bill Callahan and signed Pollard to a $21. 75 million contract.
66A. Pollard is being drafted as an RB29 lately by Yahoo and ESPN.
67. During Kliff Kingsbury’s tenure as head coach of the Cardinals, Arizona ranked among the 8 most sensitive in the NFL in terms of maximum rate in the red zone.
68. Under the direction of Kliff Kingsbury, in 2020, Kenyan Drake tied for the NFL lead in runs from the goal line.
68A. You heard me. KENYAN. DUCK.
69. Under Kliff Kingsbury, in 2021, James Conner finished in the NFL in goal-line rushes.
Last year, according to FantasyLife. com’s red zone stats, Brian Robinson was among the top 10 in the NFL in terms of the highest percentage of his team’s attempts to rush inside an opponent’s 5-yard line .
70A. Brian Robinson was recently selected as one of Yahoo’s Top 30 RBs.
Justin Jefferson’s career average of 98. 3 receiving yards per game is 71. 3 in NFL history.
72. Justin Jefferson is now averaging more consistent yards per game in consecutive seasons.
73. Last season, Justin Jefferson played 4 full games with Kirk Cousins.
74. In those games, he saw a target percentage of 31% and averaged 22. 1 points per game.
With the departure of K. J. Osborn and others, last year’s Vikings team has shot more than goals.
76. T. J. Hockenson, who is expected to miss the early part of the year while recovering from a torn ACL, averaged 8. 5 goals per game last year.
76A. Justin Jefferson has recently been selected among the top six picks by Yahoo or ESPN.
77. La season, Amari Cooper threw for a career-high 1,250 receiving yards and as a WR17 at PPG.
78. La last season, in Week 16 against Houston, with current Indianapolis Colt Joe Flacco at QB, Amari Cooper had 11 receptions, 265 yards and two touchdowns, completing with 51. 5 points.
79. That game accounted for more than 21 yards from Cooper and more than 22 of his fantasy woes in 2023.
80. Without this game, consistent with the game, Cooconsistent averaged 12. 5 fantasy points, which would have been WR32 on the season.
80A. Amari Cooper is lately writing the so-called WR23 on Yahoo.
81. Last season, Tank Dell had six with at least 7 targets.
82. In those games, he averaged 23. 4 points per game.
83. Last season, CeeDee Lamb WR1 in Fantasy (23. 7 problems per game) and Tyreek Hill WR2 (23. 5 problems per game).
84. On an episode of The Edge featuring Micah Parsons this offseason, Texans quarterback C. J. Stroud, who built his best existing offense as NFL players. As beginning catchers, Stroud settled on Davante Adams, Ja’Marr Chase and. . . Dell Tank. .
84A. Tank Dell recently put together the smartest 25 WR on all major platforms.
85. La past season, there were full regular-season games where Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua played together.
86. In those 11 games, both players had a target percentage of 27%.
87. In those 11 games, Nacua averaged 15. 5 points per game. Kupp averaged 14. 8.
87A. Currently, Puka Nacua is selected 2 or 3 rounds ahead of Cooper Kupp on all major platforms.
88. No more rams. Last season, Los Angeles used players (3 WRs) on 95% of their snaps, an NFL high.
89. La Week Thirteen of last season, the first week DeMarcus Robinson saw more than two goals.
90. From Week Thirteen through Week 17 of last season, DeMarcus Robinson had a 20% goal involvement, played 86% of plays, saw at least one target in the goal zone in each and every game, and averaged 15. 4 points per game.
91. From Weeks 13-17 of last season, DeMarcus Robinson was the 12th most productive WR in Fantasy.
92. DeMarcus Robinson is selected on any major platform this year other than Underdog, where he competes as WR76.
93. Between Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett, there are 320 vacant goals from last season for the Los Angeles Chargers.
94. Going into 2024, Josh Palmer is the only WR on the Chargers roster to catch at least 40 passes from Justin Herbert. . . in his career.
95. In career games with at least seven targets, Josh Palmer averages 14. 4 GPG.
95A. Last year’s WR19, Chris Olave, averaged 14. 5 points per game.
95B. Josh Palmer was not selected among the 60 most sensible WRs on Yahoo or ESPN.
96. La last season, no tight finish had more goals in the red zone than. . . Jake Ferguson.
97. Among tight ends, he is among the top five most sensible in the NFL in terms of routes traveled, in-slot goals and game action goals.
98. The departures of Michael Gallup and Tony Pollard cause them to lose 124 goals last season.
99. In Ferguson’s games last season with at least 6 goals, he averaged 12. 2 points per game.
100. Last season’s TE6, George Kittle, averaged 12. 7 points per game.
100A. Jake Ferguson is being written lately as a TE10 or later on ESPN and Sleeper.
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