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guest essay
By Anastasia Edel
Ms. Edel is the protagonist of “Russia: Putin’s Playground: Empire, Revolution, and the New Tsar. “
On July 9, as the world gazed at the blood-spattered rubble of a children’s hospital in Kyiv, Russia celebrated its rotating presidency of the United Nations Security Council with a luncheon in New York. On the menu “Kiev chicken”, a popular Russian dish consisting of a thin crushed cutlet stuffed with garlic butter. Before taking his seat, the luncheon host and Russia’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, denied Russia’s responsibility for the attack that killed two other people and injured seven children. If the diplomats choked on the chicken, they did so in silence.
This incident is a better summary of the world we live in now. As the West watches, probably helpless, Russia becomes increasingly daring, like a tyrant who realizes that the professor will not come. Russians’ concern about NATO, palpable at the start of the invasion, is now tempered by the impunity enjoyed by their leader, regardless of the atrocities committed under his leadership. Why be afraid? Despite having the resources to end this war on Ukraine’s terms, the West obviously lacks the will to win. For Vladimir Putin, victory is now within his grasp, regardless of who runs for the White House next year.
For the past two and a half years, Western leaders have reiterated that they “support Ukraine. “Yet, even if they have spoken the right words, those leaders continue to treat war as a localized clash in which they have few obligations. Promised military aid goes beyond what is due and in amounts inadequate to match Russia’s resources, and restrictions, such as those prohibiting targeting military resources in Russia itself, restrict the effectiveness of the aid. The recent Ukrainian advance on Russian territory shows what could simply be imaginable if the chains were lifted. But the West remains committed to its “too little, too much out of the ordinary” approach, justified by the threat of a nuclear escalation by Russia. Ukraine’s application to join the NATO club is a moot point for the same reason.
The West has also failed to cut off the resources of Russia’s economic power, despite the series of sanctions. The economy is developing healthily and the assets of Russian oligarchs remain safe in the West, even if they are frozen. More importantly, Russian oil is being bought and sold with minimal difficulty around the world, as Western leaders can’t seem to decide what they need most: punishing Russia in particular or leaving things as they are. ‘they are. Tellingly, the US Treasury’s proposal to impose sanctions on oil tankers that help Russian oil evade sanctions is blocked by White House concerns that emerging gas costs may not be a good election outcome. November.
One user who doesn’t care about the U. S. election is Mr. Putin. Unlike the equivocal West, Mr. Putin is betting seriously. He has put his country and its economy on a war footing, dedicating at least a third of the state budget to the army and incentivized tens of thousands of Russians to sign up for his war apparatus with generous salaries and allowances. He expanded the theater into NATO territory, invested in pro-Russian parties and politicians, spread disinformation, and took direct aim at Western Americans worried about sending weapons to Ukraine. When faced with this, Russia simply ignores the evidence.
This configuration – an adversary with the will and resources to fight to the end and allies who provide enough assistance to prevent the front from collapsing – leaves Ukraine in a bleak situation. At some point, Ukraine’s resolve, already strained, will be weakened. and a peace agreement with Putin, whatever the conditions, will be preferable to death. That moment may come more quickly if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election and ends the war “within 24 hours,” as he has promised, forcing Ukraine to negotiate on Trump and Putin’s terms. Or it will come later if the Democrats remain in the White House and continue with their transition strategy.
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