Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has reportedly cost the Russian economy more than 2. 2% of its workforce, or as many as 1. 7 million people. reported, reflecting the long-term economic prices of the war for Russia.
Russian forces have suffered massive battlefield losses during the war that Putin introduced in February 2022. Adding to the pressure on a shrinking workforce is the exodus of many Russians wishing to escape conscription.
Economists warn that Russia’s economic growth, which has been fueled by high government military spending, will be hampered by a growing shortage of workers, resulting in higher wages that will drive inflation.
Independent Russian media outlet Novaya Gazeta Europa said its investigation found that between 860,000 and 1. 08 million Russian army workers were sent to war in the first two years of the invasion. This included infantry soldiers and those recruited as part of the announced component mobilization. via Putin in September 2022.
Estimates of Russian battlefield casualties vary: The Economist reported this month that between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian infantrymen have been seriously wounded during the war and between 110,000 and 150,000 dead. On Saturday, Ukraine’s estimate of the number of Russian casualties, which includes the dead and wounded, rose to 565,610.
But in addition to battlefield casualties, many of those who returned home after the war were disabled or unable to return to their previous positions.
Novaya Gazeta said that while Putin shows no sign of his willingness to end the war, figures for the first part of 2024 imply that the number of people withdrawn from the economy through conscription or voluntary enlistment has risen by as much as 60 percent.
Everything depends on the continuation of the mobilization. However, even if only professional soldiers are now recruited, the Russian economy is at risk of losing “between 1. 7 and 1. 9 million people in total between the beginning of 2022 and the end of 2024,” according to the media.
But another mobilization could affect only between 1. 9 and 2. 1 million people, or 2. 8% of the workforce, which would pose a fundamental danger to the economy, the media add.
Another independent Russian media outlet, The Bell, reported this week that its research showed that the war led to the largest departure of Russians from the country in three decades.
Its research of data from migration agencies and statistics in about 70 countries found that since the beginning of the war, “at least another 650,000 people who left Russia have yet to return. “This is 150,000 more than the approximate estimates made at the end of 2022. Countries where Russian is widely spoken, such as Armenia, Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Israel, were the most popular destinations.
The Bell said that some countries had responded to its requests for data and that the figures were “a low estimate,” and that the overall figure posed “serious headaches for the Kremlin, both politically and economically. “
Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment.
Brendan Cole is a senior journalist at Newsweek based in London, United Kingdom. He focuses on Russia and Ukraine, that is, on the war through Moscow. He also covers other areas of geopolitics, including China.
Brendan joined Newsweek in 2018 from International Business Times and, in addition to English, studies Russian and French.
You can contact Brendan by emailing b. cole@newsweek. com or following him on his X account @brendanmarkcole.
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