Much of the Black Sea Fleet has reportedly been expelled from its base in Crimea, kyiv continues to launch headline-grabbing moves in opposition to the Russian navy, with Rostov-on-Don being the latest scalp touted in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s General Staff said the Kilo-class submarine crashed Friday in the port of Sevastopol where it “sank instantly,” a claim that has not been independently verified and about which Newsweek contacted the Russian Defense Ministry.
Kiev denounced Friday’s attack on the peninsula occupied by Moscow since 2014 and which Ukraine has pledged to recapture, in addition to four launchers belonging to Russia’s complex S-400 air defense system.
Without an army of its own, Ukraine continued to attack Russian ships with Western long-range missiles and naval drones, forcing the fleet to move east toward its base in Novorossiysk, on Russia’s Krasnodar territory.
“Rostov-on-Don is probably also on the verge of retreating to Novorossiysk,” said Yörük Işık, a geopolitical analyst at Istanbul-based maritime consultancy Bosphorus Observer.
He noted that the submarine was repaired following a drone strike in September 2023 and returned to the water for an at-sea trial. “It happened again,” he told Newsweek.
Since the start of the war in February 2022, Ukraine claims to have damaged or severely sunk at least 15 warships, including the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship Moskva. Among the casualties are landing ships and other vessels, such as the missile-armed warship Tsiklon in May and the Sergei Kotov in March.
Britain’s Ministry of Defence said in July that at least 26 Russian ships had been damaged or destroyed, while an estimate published in March via the Hudson Institute think tank indicated Kyiv was on track to become part of the fleet by 2025.
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Britain’s chief of defense staff, said Ukraine had “aligned” the Russian fleet with drones and long-range missiles and Ukrainian navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk recently said the “latest “Russian patrol boat” moving away from Crimea.
“Lately there is no chance for the Russian Navy in the western parts of the Black Sea, as it has lost many assets,” Işık said. “Due to Turkey’s closure of the Bosphorus, Russia has no capacity to introduce new assets into the Black Sea, unless they are a limited number of smaller Caspian Sea assemblies. “
However, Işık said it is notable that Moscow is also seeking to identify some other base in the Georgian separatist region of Abkhazia, which is identified around the world as a component of Georgia but is de facto controlled by separatist authorities. Moscow has identified Abkhazia as an independent state. , while Tbilisi is considered occupied through Russia.
Işık said Russia would soon send a tugboat to assist submarines at the Ochamchire site, a city beach where a small naval facility used by the Russian fishing fleet would be rebuilt. “The Russian Navy is not only moving east to Novorossiysk, but is also searching further into the southeastern corner of the Black Sea, far from any imaginable Ukrainian attack and its safe harbor. “
At the same time, with little progress on the front line in Ukraine and the Russian prisoner swap in which the Kremlin could simply retreat to argue that it can negotiate an end to the war, Kyiv’s latest attack opposes a shipment to the Black Sea. The fleet arrives at the right time, Yes said.
“The point is that Ukraine organizes successful operations that show that it can continue the war that it can still win. “
Brendan Cole is a senior Newsweek journalist based in London, United Kingdom. It focuses on Russia and Ukraine, i. e. the war through Moscow. It also covers other areas of geopolitics, adding China.
Brendan joined Newsweek in 2018 from International Business Times and, in addition to English, studies Russian and French.
You can contact Brendan by emailing b. cole@newsweek. com or by following him on his X @brendanmarkcole account.
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