A year ago, independent analysts noted increased activity at the Kremlin’s 1295th central tank repair base and garage in Arseniev, in the Russian Far East.
Technicians were reactivating dozens of BTR-50 tracked armored vehicles from the 1950s and driving them out of the yard. “We discovered 63 BTR-50s in 1295, all of which have been eliminated and appear to be in good condition,” analyst Highmarsed reported.
There are two entire battalions of vehicles. Off-road rides for a bunch of Russian soldiers. But for Highmarsed there is another, darker implication. “I would expect to see more BTR-50 losses in the future,” the analyst predicted.
In fact, the Russians have decommissioned no less than 10 BTR-50s indexed through the Oryx intelligence collective. The survivors are still in action, some with new turrets and a maximum with additional armor to deflect the ubiquitous explosive drones that have made it incredibly damaging for any Russian vehicle to break out of their cover.
Rather, “museum pieces” — as one observer described them — are not unusual along the 800-mile front line as Russia’s broader war against Ukraine approaches its fourth year. But its resurgence may only be temporary. All Russian cars are endangered species in a war governed by drones.
The BTR-50 is a 15-ton diesel armored tractor with two crews and space for up to 20 passengers. It usually consists of a heavy weapon. The BTR-50 entered service in 1954 and for the next 12 years was the Soviet Army’s main fighting vehicle. The BTR-50 crews led the infantry into battle, the infantrymen when they dismounted and then supported them with their weaponry.
However, the BTR-50 was lightly armed and lightly armored. When the heavier, more heavily armed BMP-1 debuted in 1966, thousands of BTR-50s were cascaded into second-line units. The BTRs carried artillery, engineers, and anti-aircraft guns to MT-LB tractors also began upgrading older cars in those roles.
As of late 2022, the Russian military operated only a handful of geriatric BTR-50s. That the Russians kept some BTR-50s does not deserve to be a surprise. “Russia sees no need to completely replace its older automobile stock and has instead followed a hybrid path to modernization,” Lester Grau and Charles Bartles in their definitive paintings The Russian Way of War.
But those operational BTR-50s performed secondary roles away from any enemy forces. Meanwhile, a few thousand old cars have rusted in warehouses. Two years ago, it would have been unlikely that those surplus BTR-50s would have gone into action in Ukraine. But that was before the Russians lost more than 15,000 armored cars and other heavy equipment.
Given that the Russian industry manufactures around two hundred BMP-3 combat vehicles and 90 T-90M tanks each year, as well as a few hundred other armored vehicles, adding the BTR-82 wheeled combat vehicles, the vast majority of vehicles replacement that the Kremlin will have to produce for combat. Losses inevitably come from once-sizable stockpiles of vintage Cold War equipment.
Three years ago, storage yards held tens of thousands of old tanks, fighting vehicles and other vehicles. But the stocks weren’t infinite. As they began to deplete, the Russians began deploying more civilian-style vehicles for direct assaults on Ukrainian positions: cars, vans, all-terrain vehicles, motorcycles and even electric scooters.
Nowadays, it is practically not unusual for an unarmored civilian vehicle full of terrified Russian infantry to head towards Ukrainian lines, most likely heading for destruction by fire.
The deployment of civilian cars is a sign of strain in Russia’s device production efforts. The continued sightings of armored BTR-50s are another. Recent satellite photographs imply an even deeper tension. In some of the warehouses that were once the most abundant, there are no salvageable cars left. Not even the 70-year-old BTR-50s.
That doesn’t mean Russia won’t keep fighting. It does mean its forces will increasingly fight on foot. Incredibly, foot-borne infantry often fare better than vehicles do under relentless drone attack. The former are fleeting targets. The latter are usually pretty hard to miss.
“Every time” Russian regiments attempt a vehicle attack, “the result is zero,” one Russian blogger recently lamented in a missive translated by Estonian analyst WarTranslated. But “the infantry, with artillery and drones, is slowly but currently taking advantage of one tree line after another. “
However, there is one thing that foot infantry cannot do. They cannot take advantage of gaps in enemy defenses to temporarily and deeply penetrate enemy territory. That’s why recent Russian advances are basically measured in meters, not miles.
And why the surviving BTR-50s, despite their complex age, are still a valuable asset for the Russians.
Sources:
1. Hautmarsé
2. Kherson special cat
3. Oryx
4. The Russian of War
5. War
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