A powerful barrage of Ukrainian drones pummeled Millerovo air base in Russia’s Rostov Oblast on Monday. Russian gunners opened fire, lighting up the early morning sky. Explosions rocked the base.
Targets may appear with the Russian Air Force’s few Sukhoi Su-25 attack aircraft still preparing from the airfield for strikes on the 800-mile front line of Russia’s broader 34-month-long war against Ukraine. 100 miles west. There is also a military academy on the base.
The specific target doesn’t really matter. The point of Ukraine’s deep-strike raids isn’t always to destroy particular buildings or pieces of equipment. According to Tatarigami, the founder of the Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight, “the goal is to steadily increase the cost of war for Russia” by instilling fear, increasing risk and disrupting operations.
It’s working. As Ukraine has deployed more, and more powerful, deep-strike munitions—U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems rockets, French- and British-made SCALP-EG and Storm Shadow cruise missiles and an array of locally-produced drones, rockets and cruise missiles—the Russians have reacted by shifting forces farther from the front line.
Just seven months ago, the Russian Air Force stationed up to 305 fighter jets just a hundred miles from the front line in Ukraine. When the Ukrainian military began dropping ATACMS, which disperses grenade-sized submunition loads over a wide area, the Russians panicked and began flying many fighter jets, redeploying them to bases just beyond ATACMS’ 200 miles of diversity. Formation
Last year, advertising satellites detected dozens of Su-25 and Sukhoi Su-30 fighters over Millerovo. This fall, the same satellites observed a handful of Su-25s remaining at the base.
The great warplane evacuation may have saved valuable airframes from destruction in the recent drone bombardment. But that doesn’t mean the Ukrainian raids on the Rostov Oblast airfield are pointless. The raids force the Russians into a time-distance dilemma.
Operating from bases as far as 400 miles from the front line, instead of just 100 miles, limits how often Russian warplanes can fly in a given week—and also limits how long they can linger over the front during their less frequent sorties. Sure, the Russian air force is preserving its planes. But in doing so, it’s making the planes less useful.
This is a smart calculation for Ukraine. And the estimates are growing as Ukrainian munitions penetrate deeper and deeper into Russia. “Ukraine is strengthening its ability to lift the war burden for Russia,” Tatarigami writes.
Sources:
1. WarTranslated
2. Tatarigami
3. Mark Krutov
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