Russia’s average daily production of crude oil in 2024 slumped to its lowest level in nearly two decades, according to the latest figures, which reportedly show the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
Data from oil industry research platform Seala showed that crude oil production in Russia this year averaged 1,254 tonnes per day, the lowest since 2005.
The army news site Militarnyi among Ukrainian media outlets that cited the figures, along with reports that production at Russia’s oil refineries had fallen to its lowest point since 2012 due to unscheduled upkeep following the attacks. drones.
Newsweek has contacted Russia’s Finance Ministry for comment by email.
Oil is the key to profits for Russia, which is the world’s third largest oil manufacturer and accounts for more than 12% of global crude oil production.
That is why oil was targeted by Western sanctions that aimed to punish Russia and President Vladimir Putin for his 2022 invasion of Ukraine and choke off funds for his war machine.
These come with the $60 limit imposed through the G7 on a barrel of oil transported by sea, which Russia controlled to evade thanks to the so-called ghost fleet of ships whose links to Moscow are hidden, through shell companies.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has managed to attack oil production sites in Russia with drone movements inside the country, but has not claimed responsibility.
Seala figures show Russia’s daily crude oil production will be 1,330 tonnes in 2022, falling to 1,254 tonnes this year.
Militarnyi said this is set against a backdrop of record combined crude oil and fuel condensate production of 1,428,000 tonnes per day.
“This was the lowest level since 2011, when production amounted to 1,424 tons per day,” it said. “At the same time, oil production fell to 1,254 thousand tons per day, which is the lowest level since 2005.”
Citing figures from Reuters, the Moscow Times is one of the media outlets reporting projections that Russia would produce 267 million tonnes of oil this year, 8 million tonnes less than in 2023, the lowest fuel production since 2012.
Drone attacks on Russian refineries have led to unscheduled repairs of aircraft, which have been made more complicated by Western sanctions on the technology. Three refineries were severely affected by Ukrainian attacks in 2024.
One was in Tuapse in the southern Krasnodar region on the Black Sea coast, a facility owned by state giant Rosneft that in January was engulfed by a huge fire, with another in July. Downtime in its primary units led to a 59.6 percent drop in production, or 5.5 million metric tons, Militarnyi reported.
The Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez refinery in Kstovo, in the Nizhny Novgorod region, was targeted in March and saw a 21.8 percent drop in production of 3.4 million metric tons. The Novoshakhtinsk facility in the Rostov region saw a drop by nearly a third (31.4 percent), or 1.5 million metric tons.
Russia has also noted a drop in retail gas prices, which rose 11% in 2024 to 60. 57 rubles per liter, according to national statistics firm Rosstat.
Ukrainian outlet Militarnyi reported: “As a result of the Ukrainian attacks, production at Russian oil refineries fell to a 12-year low. At the same time, oil production has fallen to a 19-year low.”
Analysts hope that the Russian oil industry can recover thanks to the availability of equipment necessary to repair refineries and stable fuel demand.
“If the point reached in the second part of the year is maintained, in 2025 the processing volume could increase by four to five percent,” said Alexander Frolov of the InfoTEK analysis portal, according to The Moscow Times newspaper.
However, Russia is likely to continue its export of oil via its shadow fleet as European countries seek to curb the trade and thus funding for the Ukrainian war.
Brendan Cole is a senior news reporter for Newsweek based in London, United Kingdom. Theirs is Russia and Ukraine, specifically the war began through Moscow. It also covers other areas of geopolitics, including China. Brendan joined Newsweek in 2018 from the International Business Times and, in addition to English, knows Russian and French. You can contact Brendan by emailing b. cole@newsweek. com or follow him on his X account @brendanmarkcole.