Ukraine’s offensive in Russia is a blow to President Vladimir Putin and may mark a turning point in the primaries.
In practice, you’ll have to minimize the situation while being forced to declare an emergency and send reinforcements. But for Ukrainian President Volodynyr Zelensky, it’s an incredibly risky gamble for what could result in an even bigger reward. It is hard to believe that the United States, as Ukraine’s main financier, was not informed of the operation through secondary channels.
The timing of the operation is, and may simply imply, that Ukraine’s intelligence leaders believe Putin is on politically shaky ground. His biggest worry is appearing weak at home, which weakens him because Zelensky dealt him a massive, humiliating blow. The fact that 76,000 of its citizens are evacuating the Kursk region and beyond is a terrible sight for Putin who will have sent surprise waves through a giant component of the population.
Ukraine, strangely and brilliantly, has waged war against Russia, whose citizens are feeling the repercussions of Putin’s invasion through sanctions and deaths in Ukraine. This came after the United States eased restrictions on the use of its weapons against Russian territory, but it came as a surprise to most Western countries. According to Ukrainian intelligence, in 900 days of war as of Sunday, Russia lost 590,920 soldiers, 8,447 tanks, 366 fighter jets, 328 helicopters and 28 ships.
And strategically, Ukraine, which keeps its territory 35 miles from Russia, is opening up a wonderful new front that is about 15 miles wide and can also pay huge dividends. In any move toward peace negotiations, this would possibly give him leverage to ask Russia to give up much, if not all, of the 20% of Ukraine it occupies. This may also simply be in exchange for a complete Russian withdrawal of Ukrainian forces, several thousand of whom are participating in the operation.
But in the short term, the Kremlin’s poorly trained and under-resourced troops are coming under strain and the momentum they had gained in Ukraine has waned. Ukraine has bought time thanks to this operation, but the next few days will be marked by bitter fighting. while Russia tries to resist the advance on its territory.
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