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“Coercive diplomacy” could leave Tehran to choose either a negotiated disassembly of its nuclear capability, or a forced one.
By David E. Sanger
David E. Sanger has Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the diplomatic and covert efforts to undermine them for 3 decades.
President-elect Donald J. Trump will find himself facing an Iran that is suddenly much more fragile than during his first administration, its leadership more uncertain and its nuclear program more exposed and vulnerable to attack.
This new truth has sparked an internal debate about how he handles his management in Tehran: with an opening to negotiations or with an attack on its nuclear enrichment program, overt or covert, or perhaps initiated through Israel.
Or, as many suggest, a series of “coercive diplomacy” that leads Tehran to a negotiated dismantlement of its nuclear capacity or a forced dismantlement.
The urgency of the factor was underscored Sunday by Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, who told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria that with Iran’s most sensible representatives weakened or eliminated, “it’s no wonder voices are saying, ‘Hey, maybe we want to leave. ‘”for a nuclear weapon now.
He added that he had a “real risk” that Iran would drop a bomb on Trump’s national security team and on the Israelis.
In interviews over the past two weeks, American and foreign officials have said that the menacing dance over Iran’s nuclear future could take a dramatic turn in the next few months. That assessment came after the U.N.’s top nuclear inspector warned that Iran was accelerating its enrichment of near-bomb-grade uranium.
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