Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and their respective spy agencies assessed recent developments unfolding in the United States: the Trump-Biden debate, the NATO summit in Washington, and President Biden’s suitability to run for office.
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Vladimir Putin, President Biden and Xi Jinping (Getty Images | Reuters)
They concluded that, despite Washington’s rhetoric and punches, United States security is compromised. It would be unexpected for the two dictators to refrain from taking advantage of this situation. Here’s why.
First, between now and January 20, the United States will continue to be led by a president who is deemed unworthy to fully perform his duties as commander-in-chief, a critical vulnerability, especially in times of crisis or even war. The Trump-Biden presidential debate and the “Big Boy” press conference, in which Biden referred to Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “President Putin” and Kamala Harris as “Trump’s vice president,” showed what Putin and Xi already knew: Biden is serious. cognitively and physically ill.
While many Americans may not have been aware of this fact, thanks to concerted efforts by Biden officials and some media outlets to conceal it, it came as no surprise to the Russians and Chinese, whose intelligence agencies routinely profile to each one of them. every president of the United States. The new conclusion for Putin and Xi is that, bombarded with calls for Biden to withdraw from the race, his administration is now fighting for his survival and is obviously not focused on US security. It will take a lot to further unbalance an already distracted American president and his team.
Second, by becoming more committed to Ukraine’s security, the United States is further committing itself to a very likely war with Russia, which would be catastrophic. The Pentagon has no viable military strategy to win that war, just as it does. in Ukraine to date. Such a war would likely cross the nuclear threshold, as US intelligence assesses.
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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks with President Biden at a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin, File)
At the Washington summit, the 32-member NATO alliance officially declared Ukraine, which has been a component of Russia’s strategic security perimeter since the 9th century, on an “irreversible” path to membership. Russia and the United States have officially declared themselves to be the main threats to each other’s security.
Putin, who has declared for years that the Ukrainian NATO club is a “red line,” will most likely threaten to go to war with the United States over Ukraine, revealed war exercises conducted through the U. S. intelligence community. On his orders, a war strategy was developed, adding nuclear weapons, area weapons, and cyber warfare. The Kremlin believes that this strategy can contribute to achieving victory on Russia’s terms.
Third, neither the United States nor NATO has the trade capacity to wage war with Russia, let alone a war on two fronts, with Russia and China.
Putin has been preparing for a years-long war in Ukraine, having put the Russian military and economy on war bases seven years before the invasion. Putin has also protected the Russian economy from sanctions, which, contrary to Washington’s forecasts, are growing. driven through the arms production sector. With a comfortable monetary cushion of $580 billion in foreign currency and gold reserves, Russia has increased its defense budget by 70% between 2024 and 2023.
Russia’s arms production increased in one year as follows: seven times for tanks, six times for ammunition, quadruple for armored platforms, and double for artillery systems and rockets. Drone production will increase by up to 80% in 2023.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks to the media as he arrives at a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, July 12, 2023 (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis).
By contrast, the US and European allies, who are not officially at war, do not have the production capacity or contractual capacity to compete with Putin’s war machine. Last week, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg once admitted in the US House of Representatives that Western production capacity is inadequate and that Ukraine’s demands that the military remain in the fight against Russia have not been fully fulfilled.
Unlike Russia, where Putin can order factories to switch from civilian to military production, U. S. and European defense industries are subject to bureaucratic requirements, such as approval of funding and the ability to hire. contracts. These corporations cannot begin producing weapons until a contract has been negotiated, approved, and funded.
In addition, many high-tech U. S. weapons have proved useless on the battlefield in Ukraine. The Russians, who have studied the United States’ use of generation in military operations over the past two decades, have developed countermeasures for what the Pentagon calls “networks. “-Centered war. ” Russia’s impressive electronic warfare capabilities have disrupted or degraded many GPS-dependent U. S. combat systems.
According to the Wall Street Journal, citing Ukrainian commanders, some American munitions are no longer used on the battlefield. For example, the M982 Excalibur, developed through RTX and BAE Systems, and the ground-introduced small diameter bomb, manufactured through Boeing and Saab of Sweden.
President Biden and former President Trump debate at the CNN studios in Atlanta on June 27, 2024 (Kyle Mazza/Anadolu Getty Images).
In April, a top executive of the U. S. Space Force, a new branch of service created by President Trump, pointed to the “unprecedented point of electronic warfare (EG)” used by Russia to jam the U. S. GPS, something that the U. S. military has been targeting. on. for fundamental functions, adding precision in orientation and command and control. Col. Nicole Petrucci, commander of the USSF’s combat-ready forces as head of Space Delta 3, at an AFA Warcombaters in Action event, expressed fears that U. S. forces would struggle to function in such an environment. She is under pressure from the need for “good simulators”. and “good enough” instructors who perceive the “high-risk environment” to exercise the U. S. military’s workforce to fight wars with key United States adversaries such as Russia and China.
Other US officials have admitted that the height of electronic warfare in Ukraine may overshadow what the United States could face in a clash with China, which is crippling US satellites in times of war, adding a kinetic point.
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During his Big Boy press conference, Biden said that “NATO is more powerful than ever. “He reminded us that U. S. legal responsibility under Article Five – which requires the United States to protect any NATO member in the event of an attack – is “sacred. “He added that he “will not leave Ukraine,” which is not yet a member of NATO.
What Putin and Xi concluded, however, is that, despite billions of dollars spent each year on intelligence, high-tech weaponry, and wars abroad, Washington has failed to address some glaring gaps in U. S. security. The world’s most brutal dictators are all too happy to know that a former U. S. president, and probably a long-term one, is still alive only because of a natural disaster, not because he is well protected.
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Rebekah Koffler is an Army strategic intelligence analyst and freelance writer. She is the figure in Putin’s playbook; Regnery 2021 and host of the podcast “Censored but not silenced”. Rebekah is also the protagonist of The American Bolsheviks: The Persecution of Donald Trump and the Sovietization of the United States; Post Hill Press, November 12, 2024. Twitter: @rebekah0132
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