A chimney in a Russian warehouse has destroyed parts of Shahed-136 kamikaze drone payloads, according to a report published on the official website of Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR). They did not specify how the chimney started, but it is one of many These types of chimneys in Russia were caused by sabotage, incendiary drones or other means. The report states that the warehouse contained pieces of 400 Shaheds, all of which were destroyed, suggesting detailed lore of the event.
The report also mentions that the parts included thermal cameras, a previously unknown capability that, in combination with the Starlink arrays also discovered at Shaheds, suggests that Russia has developed a more capable and dangerous version of the attack drone.
Shahed-136 is a one-way attack drone developed in Iran, with a wingspan of six feet and a warhead of approximately 100 pounds over six hundred miles. (A diversity of up to 1,500 miles has been claimed, but there is no evidence for this. ) The piston propeller engine gives it a cruising speed of about 185 km/h, which earned it the nickname “moped” or “lawnmower”.
Initially imported from Iran, Russia has gradually moved to assembling and then producing Shaheds at a giant new facility at Alabuga 600 miles east of Moscow, staffed by cheap labor — a mix of local students and, bizarrely enough, African women tricked into coming to Russia with promises of jobs in the hospitality industry.
Since 0 in 2022, Russia has gradually increased its Shahed production and now produces about two thousand one-way attack drones each month, according to Ukrainian intelligence. It should be noted that some of the drones reported as Shaheds would possibly be smaller, cheaper Russian or Chinese decoys or drones.
Continued drone attacks have inflicted enormous damage on Ukraine, with three-quarters of the electric power infrastructure destroyed by drone and missile strikes. But defenses have become increasingly capable, and as of November they managed to destroy about 95% of attacking drones with gunfire, missiles and, increasingly, electronic warfare jamming.
But as the defense evolves, so does the attack.
The Shaheds we see today are generations ahead of those first detected in Ukraine just over two years ago. The developments come with “stealth” coatings that make them harder to detect, a series of new warheads adapted to express targets, as well as knowledge modems with SIM cards to transmit knowledge about Ukraine’s cellular network.
Ukraine is now deploying cellular hunting drones armed with automatic anti-aircraft guns to shoot down. . . [+] Shaheds.
The original Shaheds had critical satellite navigation and the Russian-made versions were upgraded with a military-grade Komet navigation unit that resists jamming and spoofing. However, coverage presented through this unit appears to have been affected, as the Ukrainian Air Force reports that an increasing number of Shaheds are being shot down using electronic warfare or redirected to Russia. It is not surprising that Russia is interested in the Shaheds, which do not depend on satellite navigation at all.
Previously, some Shahed were seen with essential video cameras. The GUR report that they are now thermal cameras could imply that they are a visual navigation formula that works at night, detecting terrain features in the dark through their heat signatures. Optical navigation is not that unusual since interference compromises GPS. Earlier this month, US manufacturer Red Cat announced a partnership with Palantir to bring this capability to its tactical quadcopters, demonstrating that the technique is viable for even the smallest drones.
This capability would make Shaheds immune to jamming. But the cameras may be there for another reason.
Images of a shot Shahed intended to show a Starlink satellite communications unit.
In September, Ukrainian news outlet Defense Express reported the discovery of crashed Shaheds fitted with Starlink satellite communications. This provide long-range communications, allowing the Russian to track their drones in real time and determine which ones are downed before they reach their targets, as well as re-routing them in flight.
Obviously the Russian use of the U.S-made Starlink is highly illegal, but many posts on social media apparently show Russian troops taking delivery of Starlinks, likely through agents in third-party countries.
When combined with a thermal imaging camera, the satellite link would allow the operator to home in precisely on specific targets, especially those with an obvious heat signature such as electricity generation equipment. With real time communication Shaheds can attack moving targets such as shipping, and precision targets such as air defenses. They could also assess the effect of previous strikes.
Taking down Shaheds after they are launched is a completely defensive approach and there is always the risk that some will get through. Even at 95% success, dozens of Shaheds still find their targets each month, and many more crash into inhabited areas. The best solution is to knock out the threat ‘left of launch,’ that is , destroy them on the ground before they become a threat.
This is why the fire at Alabuga is significant. The site has previously been attacked by Ukrainian drones. Whether the fire was caused by agents inside the facility, a long-range sabotage group, or stealthy attack drones, it suggests an increased focus on tackling Russian drones at source.
Ukraine is dramatically increasing its long-range strike arsenal, with a combination of new attack drones, ‘rocket drones’ and cruise missiles; the distinction between drone and cruise missile has blurred into invisibility. These weapons will only make a strategic impact if they can be directed to where they do most good. That fact that the GUR now knows exactly which buildings on the Alabuga site need to be targeted suggests that there will be more fires and explosions in the coming months as the war of drone versus drone becomes increasingly vital.
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