A fire at a Russian warehouse destroyed components for hundreds of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones according to a report yesterday on Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (GUR) official page. They do not say how the fire started, but this is one of many such fires in Russia caused by sabotage, incendiary drones or other means. The report states that the warehouse contained the components for 400 Shaheds, all of which were destroyed, suggesting detailed knowledge of the event.
The report also mentions that the parts included thermal cameras, a previously unknown capability that, in combination with the Starlink arrays also discovered at Shaheds, suggests that Russia has developed a more capable and dangerous version of the attack drone.
Shahed-136 is a one-way attack drone developed in Iran, with a wingspan of seven feet and a warhead of around one hundred pounds that travels more than six hundred miles. (A range of up to 1,500 miles has been claimed, but there is no evidence of that. ) The piston propeller engine gave it a cruising speed of about 185 km/h and earned it the nickname “moped” or “lawnmower”.
Initially imported from Iran, Russia has turned its attention to assembling and then producing Shaheds in a giant new factory in Alabuga, 1,000 kilometers east of Moscow, with reasonable labor: a combination of local academics and, curiously, African women tricked into Let them come to work. Russia, with promises of jobs in the hotel industry.
From 0 in 2022, Russia has gradually increased its production of Shahed and now produces about two thousand one-way attack drones each month, according to Ukrainian intelligence. It should be noted that some of the drones reported as Shaheds would possibly be smaller, cheaper Russian or Chinese decoys or drones.
Continued drone attacks have inflicted enormous damage on Ukraine, with three-quarters of the electric power infrastructure destroyed by drone and missile strikes. But defenses have become increasingly capable, and as of November they managed to destroy about 95% of attacking drones with gunfire, missiles and, increasingly, electronic warfare jamming.
But as the defense evolves, so does the attack.
The Shaheds we see are generations ahead of those first noticed in Ukraine just over two years ago. The developments include “stealth” coatings that make them harder to detect, a series of new warheads adapted to express targets, as well as knowledge modems with SIM cards to transmit knowledge over Ukraine’s cellular network.
Ukraine is now deploying cellular hunting drones armed with automatic anti-aircraft guns to shoot down. . . [+] Shaheds.
The original Shaheds had basic satellite navigation, and the Russian-made versions were upgraded with Komet military-grade navigation unit which is resistant to jamming and spoofing. However, the protection this unit gives appears to have been defeated as the Ukrainian Air Force reports that increasing numbers of Shaheds are being downed by electronic warfare, or redirected back to Russia. It is not surprising then that Russia is looking at Shaheds which do not rely on satellite navigation at all.
Previously, some Shahed had been seen with basic video cameras. GUR’s report that they are now thermal cameras could imply that they are a visual navigation formula that works at night, detecting terrain features in the dark through their heat signatures. Optical navigation is not unusual because interference compromises GPS. Earlier this month, American manufacturer Red Cat announced a partnership with Palantir to bring that capability to its tactical quadcopters, making it appear that the technique is feasible for even the smallest drones.
This ability would make the Shahed immune to interference, but the cameras would possibly be there for a reason.
Images from a downed Shahed claimed to show a Starlink satellite communications unit.
In September, Ukrainian media outlet Defense Express reported on the discovery of crashed Shaheds, equipped with Starlink satellite communications. This enables long-range communications, allowing the Russians to track their drones in real time and which ones are shot down before they manage to attack. their objectives, as well as redirecting them in flight.
Obviously, Russia’s use of the American-made Starlink is highly illegal, however, social media posts allegedly show Russian troops receiving the Starlinks, most likely through agents in third countries.
Combined with a thermal camera, the satellite link would allow the operator to accurately target express targets, adding those with an apparent warmth signature, such as force generation equipment. With real-time communication, Shaheds can attack moving targets, such as ships, and precision targets, such as air defenses. They can also evaluate the effect of past attacks.
Taking down Shaheds after their release is an absolutely defensive technique and there is a threat that some will succeed. Even with a 95% good luck rate, dozens of Shaheds continue to locate their target each month, and many more crash into populated areas. The most productive solution is to eliminate the “liberation left” threat, that is, destroy them on the ground before they become a threat.
That is why the Alabuga fireplace is important. The site has already been attacked by Ukrainian drones. Whether the fire was started by agents inside the facility, a long-range sabotage group, or stealth attack drones, it suggests a need to focus more on combating Russian drones at the source.
Ukraine is particularly expanding its arsenal of long-range strikes, with a combination of new attack drones, “rocket drones” and cruise missiles; The difference between drones and cruise missiles has become invisible. These weapons will only have a strategic effect if they can be directed where they do the most good. The fact that the GUR now knows precisely which buildings at the Alabuga site will be targeted suggests that there will be more fires and explosions in the coming months as the drone war becomes increasingly important.
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