Update on the Chinese market: Are China’s moves a Trump business?

Asian equities were mixed overnight as Hong Kong-listed growth stocks outperformed and India underperformed.

The expansion actions that are quoted in Hong Kong had one day on Monday, with the Hang Seng index winning +1. 75% and the Hang Seng +2. 59% technological index after the phone call of US President Donald Trump and the president Chino Xi Jinping on Friday, which occurred after Asian markets. He closed before American markets opened.

Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk met with China’s Vice President Han Zheng, who is President Xi’s inner circle and a trusted advisor. It was before Monday’s inauguration, which he attended. Chinese media and the Wall Street Journal report that President Trump wants to stop his first hundred days in power in China.

Geopolitics recently prevented the U. S. and global establishments from allocating budget to China. While CFAs and MBAs know that they buy low-valued Chinese moves, their admin forums and their managers get their data on China from Western media resources that remain negative due to past administration. The immediate cash world isn’t embarrassed by the limitation of non-financial professionals and many are already involved, based on the dry 13F of various prestigious hedging budgets (yes, those are overdue, so we can’t say for sure). ). Apart from these types of investors, the benefits for American investors in China are non-existent.

U.S.-listed China equity ETFs have seen moderate redemptions month-to-date and for the last three months despite decent performance. Yes, there will be volatility. Yes, higher tariffs on subsidized goods such as solar panels and electric vehicles are likely. But, broad, 60% tariffs from a president who was elected because of high inflation? I don’t think so. Aren’t there strong indications already Trump and Xi can make a mutually beneficial deal? I think so. FX traders appear to agree as the Renminbi has appreciated versus the U.S. dollar.

We talk about the fact that JD. com is benefiting from the expansion of subsidies for electronics clients, which is your specialty. JD. com won a +7. 3% thanks to an update of the corridor and a +0. 64% today.

The real estate sector was the most effective in Continental China, where it gained +1. 89% and in Hong Kong, where it earned a +1. 71%. Country Garden developer won + 17. 53% in Hong Kong after returning to trade. The Sunac promoter won + 3. 75% after the restructuring of a legal responsibility in the field. Meanwhile, the state promoter Vanke won a +9. 09% in Hong Kong and a +7. 45% in Continental China after informing that he would make a payment of interest to come and news from his local government of the hometown of Shenzhen. Remember that the actions and the sector are now small, because we prefer bonds to actions, due to their good yields.

Tencent fell by -0. 62% during the night in the profits after the gain of 2. 63% on Monday. The technological hardware, the names of semiconductors and the ecosystem of the Apple origin chain have benefited from the reports that Apple will reduce the value of its iPhone to qualify for the subsidy and assistance of the Chinese government. to local semiconductor corporations following the export controls of the Biden administration.

The actions of the continent were much less enthusiastic, since Hong Kong registered small profits despite the fact that Prime Minister Li presided over an assembly of the China Industry and Commerce Federation to listen to “opinions and suggestions. “

After the close, Xi spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mega-cap banks, energy, liquor and telecom were all off while brokers, semiconductors, hardware, and communication services outperformed.

After the fence, CATL declared an initial source of income between RMB 356B and RMB 366B, which is lighter than the estimate of RMB 374B and 2024 Initial source of income RMB 49B to 53B, which would constitute a building of +11. 1% to 20. 1 %, the year -year (YOY).

I have been skeptical of the TikTok saga based on a conversation back in 2019 when Congress first introduced the idea of the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act , i.e. forcing audit reviews by threatening to delist China-based American depositary receipts, or US-listed China stocks. Russian roulette with investor capital seemed a bit aggressive since the stocks’ shareholders were U.S. and global investors. In speaking to a friend involved in the ADR capital markets at that time, I asked what he thought would happen to the ADRs. He stated that nothing would happen, which struck me as surprising considering the media attention the topic was receiving. I pressed why nothing was going to happen, and he replied, “Because money rules the world, and there is more money to be made by keeping them than there is to be made by delisting them.” There was quite a bit of volatility, though ultimately, he was right.

Similarly, I did not think that Tiktok would be prohibited, based on the inconvenience that Tiktok’s parent company, Bytedance, is US property. The company is financed through American and world personal capital. Who finances those companies? Potentially the donation of his Alma Mater, or the basis of his favorite beneficial organization or the main US pension funds. The Bytedance table is shown below. Do those other people seem “foreign opponents”?

Graph1

However, the Western media have seized on this story to draw attention to television screens, newspaper articles and websites. This shows how little the media investigates. I believe that primary governments and mainstream media are strongly connected to each other because they desire each other to justify their existence. I don’t think the new president says that or wants to. Yes, Tiktok will probably be sold because Western investors want to monetize their investment, that is. An IPO is more logical to maximize value, but we’ll see. Trump recommended a 50/50 joint venture as a viable solution.

The Hang Seng and Hang Seng Tech indexes gained +0.91% and +2.14%, respectively, on volume that decreased -8.30% from yesterday, which is 109% of the 1-year average. 308 stocks advanced while 169 stocks declined. Main Board short turnover decreased -16.06% from yesterday, which is 125% of the 1-year average, as 18% of turnover was short turnover (Hong Kong short turnover includes ETF short volume, which is driven by market makers’ ETF hedging). The growth factor and small caps gained more than the value factor and large caps. The top-performing sectors were Technology, which gained +3.17%, Real Estate, which gained +1.69, and Consumer Staples, which gained +1.34%. Meanwhile, Energy and Communication Services both fell -0.30% and were the worst-performing sectors. The top-performing subsectors were chip localization, semiconductors, and technology hardware. Meanwhile, building materials, the chemical industry, and petrochemicals were among the worst-performing subsectors. Southbound Stock Connect volumes were at 1.5X pre-stimulus levels, as Mainland investors bought a net $197 million worth of Hong Kong-listed stocks and ETFs, including Semiconductor Manufacturing International (SMIC), which was a moderate net buy, ZTE, Weimob, Tencent, and Alibaba. XPeng, Xiaomi, Meituan, and CNOOC were small net sells.

Shanghai, Shenzhen, and the STAR Board diverged to close -0.05%, +0.25%, and +0.83%, respectively, on volume that increased +1.82% from yesterday, which is 111% of the 1-year average. 1,891 stocks advanced while 3,093 stocks declined. The growth factor and small caps outperformed the value factor and large caps. The top-performing sectors were Real Estate, which gained +1.88%, Technology, which gained +1.64%, and Consumer Discretionary, which gained +0.92%. Meanwhile, the worst-performing sectors were Energy, which fell -0.70%, Materials, which fell -0.35%, and Consumer Staples, which fell -0.21%. The top-performing subsectors were communication equipment, leisure products, and electronic components. Meanwhile, education, steel, and highways were among the worst-performing subsectors. Northbound Stock Connect volumes were just above average. CNY and the Asia Dollar Index were slightly lower versus the US dollar. Treasury bonds fell. Copper fell while steel rose.

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