A former Turkish minister has made a novel suggestion on how Turkey can get rid of its Russia-built, unused S-400 Triumf strategic air defense missile systems without antagonizing Moscow. It is possible that Ankara is simply offering them for sale to other countries that maintain friendly relations with Russia, in particular Pakistan or India. It is possible that these two rival countries are interested in obtaining these missiles – which have not been used since Turkey bought them five years ago – for very different reasons.
Turkish businessman and politician Cavit Caglar, who was minister of state in the early 1990s, made the suggestion in an Aug. 5 interview with Turkish newspaper T24.
“If it were me, I would sell the S-400s,” Caglar, his best friend, said unequivocally, emphasizing that the potential customers were there. Asked if Turkey’s best friend Azerbaijan, which won S-300PMU-2 complexes from Russia in 2011, would be one of those customers, Caglar said: “No, Pakistan will buy them, India will buy them. »
He added that the sale of the S-400 would make it easier for Turkey to get hold of modern F-16s and regain its admission into the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, from which it withdrew in 2019 via Washington following the questionable acquisition. Acting United States Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland warned in January that Turkey could rejoin the F-35 program if it resolved the S-400 problem. Prior to its withdrawal, Turkey played a lucrative role in producing more than 900 F-35 portions for operators around the world and planned to procure one hundred F-35As for its air force.
In addition, Caglar hopes that Russia will “excuse us” on this matter.
Although he was out of government for decades, Caglar played a vital role in restoring strained Turkish-Russian relations after Turkey shot down a Russian bomber on the Syrian border in November 2015. For his efforts, Russia awarded him the Order of Friendship in 2017. a result. His forecast of Russia’s reaction to Turkey’s sale of the S-400s carries a lot of weight.
Also noteworthy is his suggestion of India and Pakistan instead of Azerbaijan, the main importer of Turkish military equipment. Turkey has close relations with Pakistan, adding military ties, and with Azerbaijan it has held joint military exercises with Islamabad in recent years to achieve interoperability.
Turkey has never had close defense ties with India, which basically bought Russian weapons and also carried out joint military projects with Israel, such as the progression of the Barak 8 medium-range air defense system, known in the Indian army by the names LR-SAM and MR-SAM. India recently terminated a contract with Turkey to build ships for the Indian Navy.
Unlike Pakistan, India already purchased S-400s and ordered them in 2019. Unlike NATO member Turkey, India has so far avoided incurring US sanctions under the Countering US Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, commonly known by the acronym CAATSA, for this reason. acquisition. .
It is unclear whether New Delhi could incur long-term CAATSA sanctions if it conducts any other primary transactions of purchasing complex Russian weaponry. However, if you’re looking to offload more S-400s and need sanctions, buying those Russian systems from Turkey may simply prove ideal, especially if Ankara offers them at a price lower than the estimated $2. 5 billion to buy.
Given the close relations between Islamabad and Ankara, this situation is less likely than a sale to Pakistan, which is already contemplating the purchase of S-400s in the late 2010s. The acquisition of the Turkish Triumf would allow the Pakistani army to become familiar with the formula and even the opposite exercise to it, which would be invaluable given that the S-400 is its rival’s most complex formula.
Turkish officials have rejected proposals to move the systems to Ukraine or sell them. A U. S. senator even proposed in 2020 that Washington buy the Turkish S-400s.
While Turkey rejects the idea of getting rid of the S-400, it has also said its high-altitude Siper formula is a capable rival to Russia’s Triumf. Ankara plans to identify a multi-layered national air defense called Steel Dome, which will most likely consist of the Siper supplemented with other medium- and short-range formulas made in Turkey.
The Indian S-400s will form the top end of its new multi-layer air defense, with the other tiers covered by the Israeli-Indian Barak 8 and the Indian medium-range Akash. In the case of Turkey, the Steel Dome will be composed primarily, if not entirely, of indigenous systems. It is unclear whether the S-400 will play a role in the Steel Dome initiative, indicating that Ankara would likely need to keep it in inventory or as a stand-alone, non-integrated system.
On the other hand, the good fortune of erecting the Steel Dome will once again highlight the lack of use of the S-400 in Turkey. Selling to a third country without frustrating Russia may also be tempting for Türkiye. Possibly no longer seeking F-35s for its air force, now that it has its eye on developing the indigenous TF Kaan fighter, Ankara would certainly gain advantages by returning to production parts for this stealth aircraft.
Taking all of these factors into account, something like Calgar’s original proposal could finally come to fruition in the not-too-distant future.
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