Until recently, the war in Ukraine had turned in Vladimir Putin’s favor. Despite some real Ukrainian successes (the use of drones, for example, to threaten the Russian army or the oil industry) on the front, Russia has introduced a series of offensives to push back the defenders. Even if they are not catastrophic for Ukraine, they have made the prospects for a reconquest of occupied territory even slimmer.
Then, in early August, kyiv forces broke through Russian defensive lines in an absolutely unforeseen direction: beyond the border with Russia’s Kursk region. Ukrainian forces temporarily advanced towards Kursk, seizing several key towns and roads. Initially, observers think it could simply be a minor or transitory incursion, like those carried out last year by Ukrainian-aligned paramilitary teams. But today, Ukrainian forces control more than a thousand square kilometers of Russian territory, have taken a gigantic number of prisoners, and seem more interested in consolidating their gains than disappearing into Ukraine.
Why would Ukraine launch an offensive against Russia itself?After all, Kiev’s main objectives are to defend itself against Russian offensives and try to reconquer as much Ukrainian territory as possible. But the offensive on Kursk offers several transparent opportunities for Ukraine and headaches for Putin and his surprised commanders.
One of the immediate benefits for Ukraine is that attacking Russia itself tips the scales in Kiev’s favor. Instead of wasting territory, Ukrainians are gaining territory. The broader narrative about the direction of the war influences the degree to which Ukraine’s partners are willing to send weapons and monetary support, which is therefore very important. This goes against Russia’s narrative that Ukraine cannot win the war, so the foreign network is pressuring President Volodymyr Zelensky to make a deal.
The longer the Ukrainian incursion continues, the more Russian commanders are pressured to prioritize it over their own offensives in Ukraine. Some 200,000 Russians are believed to have fled the Ukrainian advance and more Russian forces have moved into the region, not the same. Groups involved in Russian offensives. If they fail to engage or oppose Ukraine’s progress, Russian commanders would likely have to divert their troops from eastern Ukraine to stabilize the situation in Kursk.
The attack also sends a political message to the United States and other Western partners. U. S. officials have long been involved in “escalation,” whether it involves shipping complex weapons or authorizing their use on Russian territory. Zelensky fights with his associates to obtain more weapons and permission to use them. Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov know exactly which buttons to push to push forward discussions about escalation: Russia aims to become a nuclear power. So the biggest point of contention has been whether Ukraine can use externally provided weapons against targets in Russia, such as air bases. Ukraine’s position is that the army’s targets in Russia are valid as they are used for attacks against Ukraine. By attacking Kursk, Ukraine is giving the impression that fighting on Russian territory does not necessarily lead to the kind of escalation that worries the Biden leadership, although, according to the Wall Street Journal, some leadership officials still fear “fierce retaliation” against the objectives in Russia. Ukraine.
Ukraine’s last major merit is diplomatic. Although the dominance of Russian territory controlled by the Ukrainian army is small, it provides Kiev with some political influence. If Ukraine were to seek peace terms in the future, exchanging the territory it occupies for Russian territory would be a simple victory. While peace negotiations are unlikely in the short term, big occasions such as the United States presidential election have encouraged Zelensky to hedge his bets.
However, the Ukrainian attack also carries many risks. The deeper they go into Russia, the harder it is to maintain the lines of origin and send reinforcements in a timely manner. Ukraine could temporarily struggle to maintain its control over the region as Russian reinforcements begin to arrive. Like Russia, Ukraine will have to prioritize the front lines in eastern Ukraine. If Russian forces in Kursk manage to fight in the coming weeks, Ukraine’s generals could be forced to make the same decision as Russia: withdraw troops from other parts of the front to strengthen defenses or lessen their losses and keep those forces in place. . If Ukrainian forces were to retreat to the border, they would also give up their diplomatic influence and the new narrative that the balance of forces now favors Kyiv.
On Tuesday, Reuters reported heavy fighting as the Ukrainian advance ran into newly arrived Russian reserves and heavy weaponry. The Russian Defense Ministry has released photographs of Sukhoi Su-34 bombers attacking what are believed to be Ukrainian positions. “The enemy’s runaway advance has already been stopped,” said Maj. Gen. Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Chechen Akhmat special forces unit. “The enemy is already aware that the blitzkrieg he planned has not been successful. “
For the moment, it turns out that Zelensky is staying calm, despite Moscow’s new nuclear threats. “Russia brought the war to others, now it is returning home. Ukraine has sought peace and, in fact, we will ensure peace,” he said. he said in his Monday night speech.
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