It seems that a new wave of COVID-19 will occur at the end of the year. But this year it turns out that this factor is getting much less attention than the COVID surges in previous years. This has helped earn this new wave the nickname: the “silent” wave of COVID-19. But that doesn’t mean you just stay in silent mode and lull yourself into a false sense of security. Failure to take proper precautions can put you at risk of contracting COVID, whether in the short or long term.
It shouldn’t be too surprising that the colder and drier weather is bringing a surge this time of the year as it has had each year since 2020. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 just keeps doing what it does oh-so-well: it just keeps mutating and mutating and mutating, resulting in more and more variants. Leading the charge now silently—because viruses don’t talk—is the XEC variant of the SARS-CoV-2. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that the XEC variant has comprised 45% of SARS-CoV-2 infections from December 8 through December 21. In second place was the KP.3.1.1 at 24% followed by the LP.8.1 at 8%. None of the rest of the alphabet soup of FLiRT family descendants constituted more than 5% of the bunch.
The number one indication that a COVID surge is happening right now is from a number two thing: wastewater surveillance, which is basically testing samples of poop-filled sewage water for the virus. A CDC map of the U.S. shows that in the December 8-14 time period, wastewater viral activity of SARS-CoV-2 activity in wastewater samples was measured to be either “high” or “very high” in 21 states. That’s after many states remained at moderate-to-low levels throughout much of the Fall.
While wastewater monitoring is far from being completely wasteful, the accuracy of wastewater monitoring depends on where and how samples are occasionally taken. The fact that the measured activity of SARS-CoV-2 is low does not mean that the virus is not spreading substantially within the human population. There can be a long delay between infection of other people and detection of the virus in wastewater. Additionally, it’s never a good idea to rely on just one metric for anything. That’s why dating profiles involve more than just size.
These days it’s actually a whole lot harder to figure out when and where there’s a COVID surge. If you go to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID Data Tracker, the first things that you’ll find are four measures. The first is the test positivity rate listed as 5.6% for the week ending December 14, 2024, which is higher than the 5.1% from the previous week. This no longer has the accuracy that it may have had back in 2020 when a lot more testing was going on and being reported. Also, you’ll notice that it’s been two weeks since that week so that value isn’t exactly up to date.
The other three measures listed are:
Also, those 3 sizes are a bit like oversized shoulder pads, thin jeans, and oversized logo clothing, a bit replaced as the main measurements. The nature of COVID has replaced since the early days of the pandemic. While more and more people are exposed to the spike protein through vaccination and infection, other people’s immune systems are less “virgin” to the virus and instead know how to better control SARS-CoV-2. This has likely contributed to the more severe acute consequences of COVID-19 likely to be less and less maximal.
This is not to say that SARS-CoV-2 is no longer a significant threat. A SARS-CoV-2 infection continues to create a threat of long Covid. The precise threat is unknown because Covid was not monitored for a long time. In fact, the existing number of long Covid cases is unknown, as the United States has never developed an effective surveillance formula for long Covid.
You’ve also probably heard the term silent but deadly. Just because the risk of death from COVID-19 is now lower than it was in the early years of the pandemic doesn’t mean that it can’t happen. This is especially true if your immune system is weaker.
Of course, not talking about COVID-19 doesn’t mean it’s gone away. The problem, though, is that a lot of other people are acting like COVID has gone in the sweater direction and are rarely taking enough precautions, you know all that stuff. The pandemic was intended to teach us. These include:
Once again, the 2024 edition of the year-end wave of COVID-19 would likely not capture the attention of political leaders. But, as history has shown, just because political leaders don’t communicate about an issue doesn’t mean it isn’t a problem.
A community. Many voices. Create a free account to share your thoughts.
Our network aims to connect others through open and thoughtful conversations. We need our readers to share their perspectives and exchange ideas and facts in one space.
In order to do so, please follow the posting rules in our site’s Terms of Service. We’ve summarized some of those key rules below. Simply put, keep it civil.
Your message will be rejected if we realize that it seems to contain:
User accounts will be locked if we become aware that users are engaging in:
So, how can you be a power user?
Thank you for reading our Community Guidelines. Please read the full list of posting regulations discovered in our site’s Terms of Use.